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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Benoit Saint Denis won · SUB R2

Elo1426

Elo1546

Benoit Saint Denis editorial illustration

Niklas StolzevsBenoit Saint DenisUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik · Saturday, June 4, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Benoit Saint Denis won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:32

Model Prediction: Benoit Saint Denis wins(89.5%)

Actual result: Benoit Saint Denis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Benoit Saint Denis at -160 American odds

+$63 profit

$163 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Benoit Saint Denis threatens submissions; Niklas Stolze has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Benoit Saint Denis has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Niklas Stolze (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Niklas Stolze

Red Corner

Benoit Saint Denis

Blue Corner

+140

(42%)

Vegas Odds

-160

(62%)

1426

Elo

1546

Age

Switch

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

5'11"

187.96 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Niklas StolzeL2 streak

oldest →

vs Ramazan Emeev · Jul 20

KOvs Jared Gooden · Jul 21

latest

Benoit Saint Denis

oldest →

SUBvs Kyle Prepolec · May 25

SUBvs Mauricio Ruffy · Sep 25

KOvs Beneil Dariush · Nov 25

KOvs Dan Hooker · Jan 26

SUBvs Paddy Pimblett · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Niklas StolzeMetricBenoit Saint Denis

2.12

Strikes / min

5.62

2.25

Strikes absorbed / min

4.09

49%

Strike defense

42%

0.66

TDs / 15 min

4.19

55%

Takedown defense

72%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

1.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.13Δ 1.66 — meaningful gap+1.53

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Niklas StolzeBenoit Saint Denis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Niklas Stolze(3 fights)Benoit Saint Denis(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -120.5|Blue +120.5

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red +91.0|Blue -91.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Niklas StolzeTargetBenoit Saint Denis

By target zone

60% acc · 27%

Head

80% acc · 50%

100% acc · 45%

Body

75% acc · 38%

75% acc · 27%

Leg

100% acc · 13%

By position

67% acc · 55%

Distance

67% acc · 50%

100% acc · 36%

Clinch

100% acc · 25%

100% acc · 9%

Ground

100% acc · 25%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Niklas Stolze rounds

even

Benoit Saint Denis rounds

Round 1Benoit Saint Denis edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

5Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

4:34Control

Round 2Benoit Saint Denis edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

3Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:10Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 14

Sig Strikes

8 / 10

78%

Sig Str %

85.5%

20 / 23

Total Strikes

41 / 48

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 5

—

TD %

58%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

5:44

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Benoit Saint Denis	5 / 7	32 / 39	2 / 3	1
1	Niklas Stolze	6 / 7	15 / 16	0 / 0	0
2	Benoit Saint Denis	3 / 3	9 / 9	1 / 2	1
2	Niklas Stolze	5 / 7	5 / 7	0 / 0	1

Niklas Stolze

StanceSwitch

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights3

Benoit Saint Denis

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights13