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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Noad Lahat won · M-DEC R3

Elo1355

Elo1490

Niklas BackstromvsNoad LahatUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs Penne · Saturday, June 20, 2015Berlin, Berlin, Germany

Official fight result

Noad Lahat won

M-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupNiklas Backstrom: WrestlervsNoad Lahat: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Noad Lahat wins(68.1%)

Actual result: Noad Lahat wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Noad Lahat at +165 American odds

+$165 profit

$265 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Noad Lahat has 23pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Niklas Backstrom has 56pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Niklas Backstrom has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Niklas Backstrom

Red Corner

Noad Lahat

Blue Corner

-190

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+165

(38%)

1355

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'9"

187.96 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Niklas Backstrom

oldest →

SUBvs Tom Niinimaki · May 14

KOvs Mike Wilkinson · Oct 14

latest

Noad Lahat

oldest →

KOvs Godofredo Pepey · Mar 14

vs Steven Siler · Jul 14

KOvs Diego Rivas · Feb 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Niklas BackstromMetricNoad Lahat

1.12

Strikes / min

2.79

3.65

Strikes absorbed / min

1.47

40%

Strike defense

63%

2.92

TDs / 15 min

2.37

72%

Takedown defense

16%

2.20

Sub atts / 15 min

2.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.53Δ 3.85 — meaningful gap+1.32

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Niklas BackstromNoad Lahat

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Niklas Backstrom(3 fights)Noad Lahat(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -135.6|Blue +135.6

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -70.0|Blue +70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Niklas BackstromTargetNoad Lahat

By target zone

26% acc · 45%

Head

60% acc · 79%

45% acc · 45%

Body

69% acc · 15%

100% acc · 9%

Leg

80% acc · 6%

By position

31% acc · 73%

Distance

48% acc · 31%

60% acc · 27%

Clinch

74% acc · 40%

Ground

69% acc · 29%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Niklas Backstrom rounds

even

Noad Lahat rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control2:44

0Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:30Control

Round 2Noad Lahat edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control0:27

49Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:58Control

Round 3Niklas Backstrom edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns3

Control2:30

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:44Control

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 31

Sig Strikes

62 / 100

34.3%

Sig Str %

38.7%

23 / 46

Total Strikes

105 / 148

4 / 5

TDs

1 / 3

75%

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

5:41

Ctrl Time

4:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Noad Lahat	0 / 1	13 / 14	1 / 1	0
1	Niklas Backstrom	1 / 3	8 / 12	0 / 0	1
2	Noad Lahat	49 / 72	71 / 99	0 / 1	1
2	Niklas Backstrom	6 / 16	7 / 18	1 / 2	0
3	Noad Lahat	13 / 27	21 / 35	0 / 1	0
3	Niklas Backstrom	4 / 12	8 / 16	3 / 3	0

Niklas Backstrom

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach—

Fights3

Noad Lahat

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights4