Featherweight

3 Rounds

Mike Wilkinson won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1355

Elo1490

Niklas BackstromvsMike WilkinsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story · Saturday, October 4, 2014Stockholm, Sweden

Official fight result

Mike Wilkinson won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:19

Model Prediction: Niklas Backstrom wins(61.8%)

Actual result: Mike Wilkinson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Niklas Backstrom at -1000 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mike Wilkinson is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Niklas Backstrom has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Niklas Backstrom threatens submissions; Mike Wilkinson has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Niklas Backstrom has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Mike Wilkinson (52.9%).
Niklas Backstrom has a 20cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Niklas Backstrom

Red Corner

Mike Wilkinson

Blue Corner

-1000

(91%)

Vegas Odds

+650

(13%)

1355

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'7"

187.96 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Niklas Backstrom

oldest →

SUBvs Tom Niinimaki · May 14

vs Noad Lahat · Jun 15

latest

Mike WilkinsonL2 streak

oldest →

vs Brendan Loughnane · Dec 12

SUBvs Rony Jason · Jun 13

vs Makwan Amirkhani · Feb 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Niklas BackstromMetricMike Wilkinson

1.12

Strikes / min

2.35

3.65

Strikes absorbed / min

3.70

40%

Strike defense

35%

2.92

TDs / 15 min

0.92

72%

Takedown defense

55%

2.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.53Δ 1.18 — meaningful gap-1.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Niklas BackstromMike Wilkinson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Niklas Backstrom(3 fights)Mike Wilkinson(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -135.6|Blue +135.6

Recent Form

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Striker Score

Red -1.8|Blue +1.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -357.0|Blue +357.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Niklas BackstromTargetMike Wilkinson

By target zone

44% acc · 57%

Head

33% acc · 67%

Body

0% acc

100% acc · 43%

Leg

100% acc · 33%

By position

50% acc · 71%

Distance

30% acc · 50%

100% acc · 29%

Clinch

Ground

60% acc · 50%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Niklas Backstrom rounds

even

Mike Wilkinson rounds

Round 1Mike Wilkinson edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

7 / 12

Sig Strikes

6 / 15

58%

Sig Str %

40%

7 / 12

Total Strikes

7 / 16

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mike Wilkinson	6 / 15	7 / 16	0 / 1	0
1	Niklas Backstrom	7 / 12	7 / 12	0 / 0	0

Niklas Backstrom

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach—

Fights3

Mike Wilkinson

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights4