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Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Nikita Krylov won · SUB R1
Elo1485
Nikita Krylov editorial illustration
Elo1354

Nikita KrylovvsStanislav NedkovUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson · Saturday, January 24, 2015Stockholm, Sweden

Official fight result

Nikita Krylov won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:24

Style matchupNikita Krylov: WrestlervsStanislav Nedkov: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Stanislav Nedkov wins(59.4%)

Actual result: Nikita Krylov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Stanislav Nedkov at +110 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Nikita Krylov threatens submissions; Stanislav Nedkov has lost 50% of fights by sub.
  • Nikita Krylov has 53pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Nikita Krylov has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Nikita Krylov
Red Corner
VS
Stanislav Nedkov
Blue Corner
-130
(57%)
Vegas Odds
+110
(48%)
1485
Elo
1354
34
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
5'11"
195.58 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nikita Krylov
oldest →
W
SUBvs Ryan Spann · Mar 23
L
KOvs Dominick Reyes · Apr 25
L
KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Jul 25
W
KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Jan 26
L
KOvs Robert Whittaker · Jul 26
latest
Stanislav Nedkov
oldest →
W
KOvs Luiz Cane · Aug 11
L
KOvs Tom Watson · Feb 13
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nikita KrylovMetricStanislav Nedkov
4.36
Strikes / min
3.33
2.59
Strikes absorbed / min
5.39
47%
Strike defense
43%
2.05
TDs / 15 min
2.77
53%
Takedown defense
0%
1.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.77Δ 3.83 — meaningful gap-2.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1501 vs 1496Strikes24.8 vs 28.7Takedowns0.0 vs 1.7Sub Atts0.50 vs 0.00Form0.2 vs -0.6
Nikita KrylovStanislav Nedkov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701483149515081520← oldermost recent →
Nikita Krylov(10 fights)Stanislav Nedkov(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +131.2|Blue -131.2
Recent Form
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Striker Score
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red -518.0|Blue +518.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nikita KrylovTargetStanislav Nedkov

By target zone

11
79% acc · 85%
Head
4
57% acc · 100%
1
100% acc · 8%
Body
0
0% acc
1
100% acc · 8%
Leg
0

By position

2
50% acc · 15%
Distance
4
50% acc · 100%
2
100% acc · 15%
Clinch
0
9
90% acc · 69%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Nikita Krylov rounds
0
even
0
Stanislav Nedkov rounds
Round 1Nikita Krylov edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control0:31
Knockdowns1
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:10Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
13 / 16
Sig Strikes
4 / 8
81%
Sig Str %
50%
14 / 17
Total Strikes
4 / 8
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 1
—
TD %
0%
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:31
Ctrl Time
0:10

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Stanislav Nedkov4 / 84 / 80 / 10
1Nikita Krylov13 / 1614 / 170 / 01

Nikita Krylov

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights23

Stanislav Nedkov

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights3