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Catch Weight

3 Rounds

Nikita Krylov won · SUB R1

Elo1485

Elo1519

Nikita KrylovvsRyan SpannUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · Saturday, March 11, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Nikita Krylov won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:38

Style matchupNikita Krylov: WrestlervsRyan Spann: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Nikita Krylov wins(57.2%)

Actual result: Nikita Krylov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nikita Krylov at -168 American odds

+$60 profit

$160 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nikita Krylov threatens submissions; Ryan Spann has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Ryan Spann threatens submissions; Nikita Krylov has lost 40% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Nikita Krylov

Red Corner

Ryan Spann

Blue Corner

-168

(63%)

Vegas Odds

+142

(41%)

1485

Elo

1519

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'5"

195.58 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nikita Krylov

oldest →

vs Volkan Oezdemir · Oct 22

KOvs Dominick Reyes · Apr 25

KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Jul 25

KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Jan 26

KOvs Robert Whittaker · Jul 26

latest

Ryan SpannW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Apr 24

SUBvs Ovince Saint Preux · Oct 24

KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Mar 25

SUBvs Lukasz Brzeski · Jul 25

KOvs Marcus Buchecha · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nikita KrylovMetricRyan Spann

4.36

Strikes / min

3.11

2.59

Strikes absorbed / min

3.92

47%

Strike defense

43%

2.05

TDs / 15 min

1.21

53%

Takedown defense

59%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.77Δ 2.58 — meaningful gap-0.81

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nikita KrylovRyan Spann

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nikita Krylov(10 fights)Ryan Spann(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -33.4|Blue +33.4

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nikita KrylovTargetRyan Spann

By target zone

29% acc · 29%

Head

40% acc · 80%

100% acc · 29%

Body

100% acc · 20%

100% acc · 43%

Leg

By position

43% acc · 43%

Distance

44% acc · 80%

75% acc · 43%

Clinch

100% acc · 20%

100% acc · 14%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nikita Krylov rounds

even

Ryan Spann rounds

Round 1Nikita Krylov edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns2

Control2:39

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:32Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

7 / 12

Sig Strikes

5 / 11

58%

Sig Str %

45%

24 / 31

Total Strikes

5 / 11

2 / 2

TDs

1 / 2

100%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

2:39

Ctrl Time

0:32

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ryan Spann	5 / 11	5 / 11	1 / 2	1
1	Nikita Krylov	7 / 12	24 / 31	2 / 2	2

Nikita Krylov

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights23

Ryan Spann

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights17