← All fights/Event page

Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Paul Craig won · SUB R1

Elo1485

Elo1473

Nikita KrylovvsPaul CraigUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall · Saturday, March 19, 2022London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Paul Craig won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:57

Style matchupNikita Krylov: WrestlervsPaul Craig: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Nikita Krylov wins(51.8%)

Actual result: Paul Craig wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nikita Krylov at -200 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Paul Craig enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Paul Craig threatens submissions; Nikita Krylov has lost 40% of fights by sub.
Nikita Krylov has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Nikita Krylov

Red Corner

Paul Craig

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1485

Elo

1473

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'3"

195.58 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nikita Krylov

oldest →

SUBvs Ryan Spann · Mar 23

KOvs Dominick Reyes · Apr 25

KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Jul 25

KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Jan 26

KOvs Robert Whittaker · Jul 26

latest

Paul CraigL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Brendan Allen · Nov 23

KOvs Caio Borralho · May 24

vs Bo Nickal · Nov 24

vs Rodolfo Bellato · Jun 25

KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Sep 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nikita KrylovMetricPaul Craig

4.36

Strikes / min

2.50

2.59

Strikes absorbed / min

3.04

47%

Strike defense

43%

2.05

TDs / 15 min

1.43

53%

Takedown defense

35%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.77Δ 2.31 — meaningful gap-0.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nikita KrylovPaul Craig

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nikita Krylov(10 fights)Paul Craig(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +12.5|Blue -12.5

Recent Form

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +105.0|Blue -105.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nikita KrylovTargetPaul Craig

By target zone

75% acc · 95%

Head

67% acc · 100%

100% acc · 5%

Body

Leg

By position

100% acc · 16%

Distance

Clinch

73% acc · 84%

Ground

67% acc · 100%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nikita Krylov rounds

even

Paul Craig rounds

Round 1Nikita Krylov edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control3:49

2Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:02Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

19 / 25

Sig Strikes

2 / 3

76%

Sig Str %

66%

30 / 39

Total Strikes

11 / 12

1 / 1

TDs

1 / 1

100%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

3:49

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Paul Craig	2 / 3	11 / 12	1 / 1	1
1	Nikita Krylov	19 / 25	30 / 39	1 / 1	0

Nikita Krylov

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights23

Paul Craig

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights20