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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Nikita Krylov won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1485

Elo1538

Nikita KrylovvsModestas BukauskasUFC Prediction Result

UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · Saturday, January 24, 2026Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Nikita Krylov won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 4:57

Style matchupNikita Krylov: WrestlervsModestas Bukauskas: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Nikita Krylov wins(74.6%)

Actual result: Nikita Krylov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nikita Krylov at +112 American odds

+$112 profit

$212 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nikita Krylov enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Modestas Bukauskas enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Modestas Bukauskas has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Stance matchup historically favors Modestas Bukauskas (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Nikita Krylov

Red Corner

Modestas Bukauskas

Blue Corner

+112

(47%)

Vegas Odds

-132

(57%)

1485

Elo

1538

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

6'3"

Height

6'3"

195.58 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nikita KrylovL3 streak

oldest →

vs Volkan Oezdemir · Oct 22

SUBvs Ryan Spann · Mar 23

KOvs Dominick Reyes · Apr 25

KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Jul 25

KOvs Robert Whittaker · Jul 26

latest

Modestas BukauskasW5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Marcin Prachnio · Jul 24

KOvs Rafael Cerqueira · Feb 25

vs Ion Cutelaba · May 25

KOvs Paul Craig · Sep 25

DECvs Christian Edwards · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nikita KrylovMetricModestas Bukauskas

4.36

Strikes / min

3.24

2.59

Strikes absorbed / min

4.05

47%

Strike defense

50%

2.05

TDs / 15 min

0.26

53%

Takedown defense

79%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.77Δ 2.58 — meaningful gap-0.81

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nikita KrylovModestas Bukauskas

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nikita Krylov(10 fights)Modestas Bukauskas(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -52.8|Blue +52.8

Recent Form

Red -1.6|Blue +1.6

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nikita KrylovTargetModestas Bukauskas

By target zone

33% acc · 35%

Head

35% acc · 88%

65% acc · 31%

Body

50% acc · 5%

93% acc · 35%

Leg

100% acc · 8%

By position

50% acc · 89%

Distance

37% acc · 100%

83% acc · 7%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nikita Krylov rounds

even

Modestas Bukauskas rounds

Round 1Nikita Krylov edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control1:58

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Nikita Krylov edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:36

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:56Control

Round 3Nikita Krylov edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns1

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

72 / 137

Sig Strikes

40 / 108

49.3%

Sig Str %

39.3%

94 / 164

Total Strikes

43 / 111

1 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

25%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:37

Ctrl Time

0:56

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Modestas Bukauskas	11 / 21	13 / 23	0 / 0
1	Nikita Krylov	10 / 28	25 / 48	1 / 4
2	Modestas Bukauskas	11 / 32	12 / 33	0 / 0
2	Nikita Krylov	23 / 40	30 / 47	0 / 0
3	Modestas Bukauskas	18 / 55	18 / 55	0 / 0
3	Nikita Krylov	39 / 69	39 / 69	0 / 0

Nikita Krylov

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights23

Modestas Bukauskas

StanceSwitch

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights12