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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Misha Cirkunov won · SUB R1

Elo1485

Elo1437

Nikita KrylovvsMisha CirkunovUFC Prediction Result

UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis · Saturday, December 10, 2016Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Misha Cirkunov won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:38

Style matchupNikita Krylov: WrestlervsMisha Cirkunov: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Misha Cirkunov wins(66.2%)

Actual result: Misha Cirkunov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Misha Cirkunov at -105 American odds

+$95 profit

$195 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Misha Cirkunov enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Misha Cirkunov threatens submissions; Nikita Krylov has lost 40% of fights by sub.
Misha Cirkunov has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Misha Cirkunov has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Nikita Krylov

Red Corner

Misha Cirkunov

Blue Corner

-115

(53%)

Vegas Odds

-105

(51%)

1485

Elo

1437

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'3"

195.58 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nikita Krylov

oldest →

SUBvs Ryan Spann · Mar 23

KOvs Dominick Reyes · Apr 25

KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Jul 25

KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Jan 26

KOvs Robert Whittaker · Jul 26

latest

Misha CirkunovL4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Jimmy Crute · Sep 19

KOvs Ryan Spann · Mar 21

vs Krzysztof Jotko · Oct 21

SUBvs Wellington Turman · Feb 22

KOvs Alonzo Menifield · Oct 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nikita KrylovMetricMisha Cirkunov

4.36

Strikes / min

3.86

2.59

Strikes absorbed / min

3.06

47%

Strike defense

57%

2.05

TDs / 15 min

4.15

53%

Takedown defense

76%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.77evenly matched on net striking+0.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nikita KrylovMisha Cirkunov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nikita Krylov(10 fights)Misha Cirkunov(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +48.3|Blue -48.3

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -42.0|Blue +42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nikita KrylovTargetMisha Cirkunov

By target zone

45% acc · 31%

Head

40% acc · 75%

60% acc · 38%

Body

67% acc · 25%

63% acc · 31%

Leg

By position

50% acc · 75%

Distance

40% acc · 75%

80% acc · 25%

Clinch

67% acc · 25%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nikita Krylov rounds

even

Misha Cirkunov rounds

Round 1Nikita Krylov edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control1:33

8Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:40Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

16 / 29

Sig Strikes

8 / 18

55%

Sig Str %

44%

26 / 40

Total Strikes

13 / 24

1 / 2

TDs

2 / 3

50%

TD %

66%

Sub Att

Rev

1:33

Ctrl Time

0:40

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Misha Cirkunov	8 / 18	13 / 24	2 / 3	1
1	Nikita Krylov	16 / 29	26 / 40	1 / 2	0

Nikita Krylov

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights23

Misha Cirkunov

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights13