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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Magomed Ankalaev won · U-DEC

Elo1485

Elo1538

Nikita KrylovvsMagomed AnkalaevUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gane · Saturday, February 27, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Magomed Ankalaev won

U-DEC

Style matchupNikita Krylov: WrestlervsMagomed Ankalaev: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Magomed Ankalaev wins(53.0%)

Actual result: Magomed Ankalaev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Magomed Ankalaev at -300 American odds

+$33 profit

$133 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nikita Krylov threatens submissions; Magomed Ankalaev has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Magomed Ankalaev has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Nikita Krylov

Red Corner

Magomed Ankalaev

Blue Corner

+250

(29%)

Vegas Odds

-300

(75%)

1485

Elo

1538

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'3"

195.58 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nikita Krylov

oldest →

SUBvs Ryan Spann · Mar 23

KOvs Dominick Reyes · Apr 25

KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Jul 25

KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Jan 26

KOvs Robert Whittaker · Jul 26

latest

Magomed Ankalaev

oldest →

KOvs Johnny Walker · Jan 24

vs Aleksandar Rakic · Oct 24

vs Alex Pereira · Mar 25

KOvs Alex Pereira · Oct 25

KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nikita KrylovMetricMagomed Ankalaev

4.36

Strikes / min

3.65

2.59

Strikes absorbed / min

2.59

47%

Strike defense

56%

2.05

TDs / 15 min

0.79

53%

Takedown defense

87%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.77evenly matched on net striking+1.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nikita KrylovMagomed Ankalaev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nikita Krylov(10 fights)Magomed Ankalaev(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -52.6|Blue +52.6

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +224.0|Blue -224.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nikita KrylovTargetMagomed Ankalaev

By target zone

23% acc · 38%

Head

45% acc · 86%

65% acc · 47%

Body

57% acc · 9%

88% acc · 15%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

39% acc · 96%

Distance

38% acc · 67%

50% acc · 4%

Clinch

100% acc · 5%

Ground

86% acc · 28%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nikita Krylov rounds

even

Magomed Ankalaev rounds

Round 1Nikita Krylov edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns1

Control1:44

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

Round 2Magomed Ankalaev edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:05Control

Round 3Magomed Ankalaev edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:40Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

47 / 120

Sig Strikes

43 / 92

41.3%

Sig Str %

49%

58 / 132

Total Strikes

89 / 143

1 / 6

TDs

3 / 9

11%

TD %

30%

Sub Att

Rev

1:44

Ctrl Time

5:59

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Magomed Ankalaev	11 / 35	18 / 42	0 / 2
1	Nikita Krylov	21 / 49	25 / 54	1 / 3
2	Magomed Ankalaev	19 / 37	32 / 50	1 / 2
2	Nikita Krylov	16 / 52	17 / 53	0 / 1
3	Magomed Ankalaev	13 / 20	39 / 51	2 / 5
3	Nikita Krylov	10 / 19	16 / 25	0 / 2

Nikita Krylov

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights23

Magomed Ankalaev

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights16