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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Nikita Krylov won · SUB R2

Elo1485

Elo1364

Nikita KrylovvsFrancimar BarrosoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski · Sunday, May 8, 2016Rotterdam, Zuid-Holland, Netherlands

Official fight result

Nikita Krylov won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:11

Style matchupNikita Krylov: WrestlervsFrancimar Barroso: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Francimar Barroso wins(71.0%)

Actual result: Nikita Krylov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Francimar Barroso at +170 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Francimar Barroso has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Francimar Barroso has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Nikita Krylov

Red Corner

Francimar Barroso

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1485

Elo

1364

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'1"

195.58 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nikita Krylov

oldest →

SUBvs Ryan Spann · Mar 23

KOvs Dominick Reyes · Apr 25

KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Jul 25

KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Jan 26

KOvs Robert Whittaker · Jul 26

latest

Francimar BarrosoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Ryan Jimmo · May 15

vs Elvis Mutapcic · Jan 16

vs Darren Stewart · Mar 17

vs Aleksandar Rakic · Sep 17

vs Gian Villante · Jan 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nikita KrylovMetricFrancimar Barroso

4.36

Strikes / min

2.77

2.59

Strikes absorbed / min

3.07

47%

Strike defense

59%

2.05

TDs / 15 min

2.22

53%

Takedown defense

83%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.77Δ 2.07 — meaningful gap-0.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nikita KrylovFrancimar Barroso

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nikita Krylov(10 fights)Francimar Barroso(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +121.8|Blue -121.8

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +147.0|Blue -147.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nikita KrylovTargetFrancimar Barroso

By target zone

60% acc · 57%

Head

55% acc · 77%

75% acc · 31%

Body

100% acc · 14%

78% acc · 12%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

32% acc · 21%

Distance

50% acc · 55%

90% acc · 47%

Clinch

90% acc · 41%

95% acc · 33%

Ground

50% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nikita Krylov rounds

even

Francimar Barroso rounds

Round 1Nikita Krylov edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control1:28

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:22Control

Round 2Nikita Krylov edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control2:34

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:18Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

58 / 88

Sig Strikes

22 / 36

67.5%

Sig Str %

69%

115 / 152

Total Strikes

34 / 51

0 / 2

TDs

2 / 7

TD %

58%

Sub Att

Rev

4:02

Ctrl Time

1:40

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Francimar Barroso	18 / 31	29 / 44	1 / 6	0
1	Nikita Krylov	32 / 54	60 / 84	0 / 1	0
2	Francimar Barroso	4 / 5	5 / 7	1 / 1	0
2	Nikita Krylov	26 / 34	55 / 68	0 / 1	1

Nikita Krylov

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights23

Francimar Barroso

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights8