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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Nikita Krylov won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1485

Elo1458

Nikita KrylovvsEd HermanUFC Prediction Result

UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley · Saturday, July 30, 2016Atlanta, Georgia, USA

Official fight result

Nikita Krylov won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:40

Style matchupNikita Krylov: WrestlervsEd Herman: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Ed Herman wins(60.4%)

Actual result: Nikita Krylov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ed Herman at +200 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Nikita Krylov

Red Corner

Ed Herman

Blue Corner

-240

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+200

(33%)

1485

Elo

1458

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'1"

195.58 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nikita Krylov

oldest →

SUBvs Ryan Spann · Mar 23

KOvs Dominick Reyes · Apr 25

KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Jul 25

KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Jan 26

KOvs Robert Whittaker · Jul 26

latest

Ed HermanL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Patrick Cummins · May 19

vs Khadis Ibragimov · Nov 19

SUBvs Mike Rodriguez · Sep 20

vs Alonzo Menifield · Aug 21

KOvs Zak Cummings · Apr 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nikita KrylovMetricEd Herman

4.36

Strikes / min

3.31

2.59

Strikes absorbed / min

3.71

47%

Strike defense

42%

2.05

TDs / 15 min

1.96

53%

Takedown defense

59%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.77Δ 2.17 — meaningful gap-0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nikita KrylovEd Herman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nikita Krylov(10 fights)Ed Herman(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +27.5|Blue -27.5

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red -112.0|Blue +112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nikita KrylovTargetEd Herman

By target zone

44% acc · 58%

Head

43% acc · 77%

58% acc · 25%

Body

67% acc · 15%

83% acc · 17%

Leg

100% acc · 8%

By position

47% acc · 83%

Distance

47% acc · 77%

83% acc · 17%

Clinch

50% acc · 23%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nikita Krylov rounds

even

Ed Herman rounds

Round 1Nikita Krylov edged it

Sig. strikes54

Takedowns0

Control0:55

21Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:25Control

Round 2Nikita Krylov edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns1

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

60 / 118

Sig Strikes

26 / 55

46.5%

Sig Str %

53%

70 / 128

Total Strikes

36 / 65

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 1

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:55

Ctrl Time

0:25

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ed Herman	21 / 47	31 / 57	1 / 1
1	Nikita Krylov	54 / 104	64 / 114	0 / 0
2	Ed Herman	5 / 8	5 / 8	0 / 0
2	Nikita Krylov	6 / 14	6 / 14	0 / 0

Nikita Krylov

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights23

Ed Herman

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights16