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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Nikita Krylov won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1485

Elo1430

Nikita KrylovvsAlexander GustafssonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · Saturday, July 23, 2022London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Nikita Krylov won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:07

Style matchupNikita Krylov: WrestlervsAlexander Gustafsson: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Nikita Krylov wins(59.4%)

Actual result: Nikita Krylov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nikita Krylov at -200 American odds

+$50 profit

$150 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alexander Gustafsson enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Nikita Krylov threatens submissions; Alexander Gustafsson has lost 38% of fights by sub.
Alexander Gustafsson has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Nikita Krylov

Red Corner

Alexander Gustafsson

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1485

Elo

1430

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'5"

195.58 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nikita Krylov

oldest →

SUBvs Ryan Spann · Mar 23

KOvs Dominick Reyes · Apr 25

KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Jul 25

KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Jan 26

KOvs Robert Whittaker · Jul 26

latest

Alexander GustafssonL3 streak

oldest →

vs Jan Blachowicz · Sep 16

KOvs Glover Teixeira · May 17

KOvs Jon Jones · Dec 18

SUBvs Anthony Smith · Jun 19

SUBvs Fabricio Werdum · Jul 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nikita KrylovMetricAlexander Gustafsson

4.36

Strikes / min

4.03

2.59

Strikes absorbed / min

3.53

47%

Strike defense

51%

2.05

TDs / 15 min

1.53

53%

Takedown defense

83%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.77Δ 1.27 — meaningful gap+0.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nikita KrylovAlexander Gustafsson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nikita Krylov(10 fights)Alexander Gustafsson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +54.9|Blue -54.9

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -602.0|Blue +602.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nikita KrylovTargetAlexander Gustafsson

By target zone

59% acc · 92%

Head

57% acc · 80%

100% acc · 4%

Body

100% acc · 20%

50% acc · 4%

Leg

By position

52% acc · 58%

Distance

71% acc · 100%

80% acc · 15%

Clinch

70% acc · 27%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nikita Krylov rounds

even

Alexander Gustafsson rounds

Round 1Nikita Krylov edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:09

Knockdowns2

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

26 / 44

Sig Strikes

5 / 8

59%

Sig Str %

62%

26 / 45

Total Strikes

5 / 9

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:09

Ctrl Time

0:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alexander Gustafsson	5 / 8	5 / 9	0 / 0	0
1	Nikita Krylov	26 / 44	26 / 45	0 / 0	0

Nikita Krylov

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights23

Alexander Gustafsson

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights17