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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Nik Lentz won · SUB R2

Elo1395

Elo1363

Nik LentzvsWill BrooksUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tybura · Saturday, November 18, 2017Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

Official fight result

Nik Lentz won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:05

Style matchupNik Lentz: WrestlervsWill Brooks: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Nik Lentz wins(71.4%)

Actual result: Nik Lentz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nik Lentz at +345 American odds

+$345 profit

$445 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nik Lentz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Will Brooks has 39pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Will Brooks has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Nik Lentz

Red Corner

Will Brooks

Blue Corner

+345

(22%)

Vegas Odds

-430

(81%)

1395

Elo

1363

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'10"

172.72 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nik LentzL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Gray Maynard · Oct 18

vs Scott Holtzman · Feb 19

KOvs Charles Oliveira · May 19

vs Arnold Allen · Jan 20

vs Movsar Evloev · Jan 21

latest

Will BrooksL2 streak

oldest →

vs Ross Pearson · Jul 16

KOvs Alex Oliveira · Oct 16

SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Apr 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nik LentzMetricWill Brooks

3.44

Strikes / min

4.26

3.25

Strikes absorbed / min

2.54

50%

Strike defense

56%

3.30

TDs / 15 min

2.08

43%

Takedown defense

82%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.19Δ 1.53 — meaningful gap+1.72

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nik LentzWill Brooks

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nik Lentz(10 fights)Will Brooks(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +32.2|Blue -32.2

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red +56.0|Blue -56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nik LentzTargetWill Brooks

By target zone

26% acc · 44%

Head

60% acc · 86%

78% acc · 21%

Body

100% acc · 4%

80% acc · 35%

Leg

83% acc · 10%

By position

35% acc · 74%

Distance

60% acc · 86%

82% acc · 26%

Clinch

88% acc · 14%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nik Lentz rounds

even

Will Brooks rounds

Round 1Will Brooks edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:46

26Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:33Control

Round 2Will Brooks edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:12Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

34 / 82

Sig Strikes

49 / 78

40%

Sig Str %

62.5%

40 / 88

Total Strikes

49 / 78

0 / 2

TDs

2 / 4

TD %

66.5%

Sub Att

Rev

0:46

Ctrl Time

0:45

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Will Brooks	26 / 43	26 / 43	1 / 3	1
1	Nik Lentz	23 / 52	28 / 57	0 / 1	0
2	Will Brooks	23 / 35	23 / 35	1 / 1	0
2	Nik Lentz	11 / 30	12 / 31	0 / 1	1

Nik Lentz

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights22

Will Brooks

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights4