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Catch Weight

3 Rounds

Movsar Evloev won · S-DEC

Elo1395

Elo1536

Nik LentzvsMovsar EvloevUFC Prediction Result

UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor · Saturday, January 23, 2021Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Movsar Evloev won

S-DEC

Style matchupNik Lentz: WrestlervsMovsar Evloev: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Movsar Evloev wins(77.4%)

Actual result: Movsar Evloev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Movsar Evloev at -560 American odds

+$18 profit

$118 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Movsar Evloev enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Movsar Evloev has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Movsar Evloev has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Movsar Evloev has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Nik Lentz

Red Corner

Movsar Evloev

Blue Corner

+390

(20%)

Vegas Odds

-560

(85%)

1395

Elo

1536

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'7"

172.72 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nik LentzL2 streak

oldest →

vs David Teymur · Jun 18

KOvs Gray Maynard · Oct 18

vs Scott Holtzman · Feb 19

KOvs Charles Oliveira · May 19

vs Arnold Allen · Jan 20

latest

Movsar EvloevW5 streak

oldest →

vs Dan Ige · Jun 22

vs Diego Lopes · May 23

vs Arnold Allen · Jan 24

vs Aljamain Sterling · Dec 24

vs Lerone Murphy · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nik LentzMetricMovsar Evloev

3.44

Strikes / min

3.91

3.25

Strikes absorbed / min

2.80

50%

Strike defense

61%

3.30

TDs / 15 min

4.78

43%

Takedown defense

61%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.19evenly matched on net striking+1.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nik LentzMovsar Evloev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nik Lentz(10 fights)Movsar Evloev(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -141.4|Blue +141.4

Recent Form

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Striker Score

Red +2.4|Blue -2.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +182.0|Blue -182.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nik LentzTargetMovsar Evloev

By target zone

24% acc · 52%

Head

46% acc · 85%

75% acc · 33%

Body

70% acc · 9%

100% acc · 15%

Leg

71% acc · 6%

By position

34% acc · 89%

Distance

47% acc · 95%

71% acc · 11%

Clinch

Ground

80% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nik Lentz rounds

even

Movsar Evloev rounds

Round 1Movsar Evloev edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:46

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:22Control

Round 2Movsar Evloev edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control0:33

28Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:59Control

Round 3Movsar Evloev edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:07

47Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:15Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

46 / 127

Sig Strikes

82 / 170

39.3%

Sig Str %

47.7%

50 / 137

Total Strikes

137 / 235

1 / 5

TDs

2 / 2

16.7%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

1:26

Ctrl Time

4:36

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Movsar Evloev	7 / 15	37 / 49	1 / 1	0
1	Nik Lentz	7 / 15	8 / 17	0 / 2	1
2	Movsar Evloev	28 / 55	34 / 64	1 / 1	0
2	Nik Lentz	20 / 45	20 / 50	1 / 2	1
3	Movsar Evloev	47 / 100	66 / 122	0 / 0	0
3	Nik Lentz	19 / 67	22 / 70	0 / 1	0

Nik Lentz

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights22

Movsar Evloev

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights10