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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Nik Lentz won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1395

Elo1360

Nik LentzvsMichael McBrideUFC Prediction Result

UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem · Saturday, September 10, 2016Cleveland, Ohio, USA

Official fight result

Nik Lentz won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:17

Style matchupNik Lentz: WrestlervsMichael McBride: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Nik Lentz wins(80.6%)

Actual result: Nik Lentz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nik Lentz at -550 American odds

+$18 profit

$118 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nik Lentz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Nik Lentz has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Michael McBride has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Nik Lentz

Red Corner

Michael McBride

Blue Corner

-550

(85%)

Vegas Odds

+425

(19%)

1395

Elo

1360

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

6'1"

172.72 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nik LentzL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Gray Maynard · Oct 18

vs Scott Holtzman · Feb 19

KOvs Charles Oliveira · May 19

vs Arnold Allen · Jan 20

vs Movsar Evloev · Jan 21

latest

Michael McBride

oldest →

vs Scott Holtzman · Apr 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nik LentzMetricMichael McBride

3.44

Strikes / min

4.08

3.25

Strikes absorbed / min

5.85

50%

Strike defense

40%

3.30

TDs / 15 min

1.85

43%

Takedown defense

30%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.19Δ 1.96 — meaningful gap-1.77

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nik LentzMichael McBride

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nik Lentz(10 fights)Michael McBride(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +34.8|Blue -34.8

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -47.1|Blue +47.1

Grappler Score

Red -49.2|Blue +49.2

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nik LentzTargetMichael McBride

By target zone

74% acc · 84%

Head

45% acc · 63%

100% acc · 13%

Body

33% acc · 6%

50% acc · 3%

Leg

83% acc · 31%

By position

53% acc · 26%

Distance

52% acc · 88%

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

0% acc

90% acc · 68%

Ground

67% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nik Lentz rounds

even

Michael McBride rounds

Round 1Nik Lentz edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns4

Control4:19

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Nik Lentz edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control3:00

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:31Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

38 / 50

Sig Strikes

16 / 31

78%

Sig Str %

52.5%

80 / 97

Total Strikes

42 / 65

5 / 6

TDs

0 / 1

90%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

7:19

Ctrl Time

0:31

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Michael McBride	5 / 9	21 / 31	0 / 0	0
1	Nik Lentz	16 / 18	41 / 45	4 / 5	0
2	Michael McBride	11 / 22	21 / 34	0 / 1	0
2	Nik Lentz	22 / 32	39 / 52	1 / 1	1

Nik Lentz

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights22

Michael McBride

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach—

Fights2