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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Islam Makhachev won · U-DEC R3

Elo1395

Elo1544

Nik LentzvsIslam MakhachevUFC Prediction Result

UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie · Saturday, February 11, 2017Brooklyn, New York, USA

Official fight result

Islam Makhachev won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupNik Lentz: WrestlervsIslam Makhachev: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Nik Lentz wins(63.5%)

Actual result: Islam Makhachev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nik Lentz at +270 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nik Lentz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Islam Makhachev enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Islam Makhachev has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Islam Makhachev has 48pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Nik Lentz

Red Corner

Islam Makhachev

Blue Corner

+270

(27%)

Vegas Odds

-330

(77%)

1395

Elo

1544

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'10"

172.72 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nik LentzL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Gray Maynard · Oct 18

vs Scott Holtzman · Feb 19

KOvs Charles Oliveira · May 19

vs Arnold Allen · Jan 20

vs Movsar Evloev · Jan 21

latest

Islam MakhachevW5 streak

oldest →

vs Alexander Volkanovski · Feb 23

KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Oct 23

SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Jun 24

SUBvs Renato Moicano · Jan 25

vs Jack Della Maddalena · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nik LentzMetricIslam Makhachev

3.44

Strikes / min

2.45

3.25

Strikes absorbed / min

1.45

50%

Strike defense

61%

3.30

TDs / 15 min

3.10

43%

Takedown defense

91%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.19evenly matched on net striking+1.00

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nik LentzIslam Makhachev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nik Lentz(10 fights)Islam Makhachev(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -148.8|Blue +148.8

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +1.7|Blue -1.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nik LentzTargetIslam Makhachev

By target zone

16% acc · 23%

Head

71% acc · 86%

64% acc · 54%

Body

100% acc · 14%

60% acc · 23%

Leg

By position

23% acc · 46%

Distance

52% acc · 30%

71% acc · 38%

Clinch

0% acc

100% acc · 15%

Ground

94% acc · 70%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nik Lentz rounds

even

Islam Makhachev rounds

Round 1Islam Makhachev edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:06

9Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

4:31Control

Round 2Islam Makhachev edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:51Control

Round 3Islam Makhachev edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:24

23Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:31Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

13 / 35

Sig Strikes

43 / 58

39%

Sig Str %

79%

35 / 61

Total Strikes

98 / 127

0 / 2

TDs

5 / 5

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:30

Ctrl Time

11:53

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Islam Makhachev	9 / 9	26 / 31	2 / 2	0
1	Nik Lentz	6 / 9	14 / 18	0 / 0	1
2	Islam Makhachev	11 / 24	31 / 48	1 / 1	0
2	Nik Lentz	5 / 14	15 / 25	0 / 0	0
3	Islam Makhachev	23 / 25	41 / 48	2 / 2	0
3	Nik Lentz	2 / 12	6 / 18	0 / 2	0

Nik Lentz

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights22

Islam Makhachev

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights18