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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Nik Lentz won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1395

Elo1352

Nik LentzvsEiji MitsuokaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II · Saturday, August 11, 2012Denver, Colorado, USA

Official fight result

Nik Lentz won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:45

Style matchupNik Lentz: WrestlervsEiji Mitsuoka: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Nik Lentz wins(77.8%)

Actual result: Nik Lentz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nik Lentz at -500 American odds

+$20 profit

$120 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nik Lentz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Nik Lentz has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Eiji Mitsuoka (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Nik Lentz

Red Corner

Eiji Mitsuoka

Blue Corner

-500

(83%)

Vegas Odds

+435

(19%)

1395

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'7"

172.72 cm

Reach

173 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nik LentzL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Gray Maynard · Oct 18

vs Scott Holtzman · Feb 19

KOvs Charles Oliveira · May 19

vs Arnold Allen · Jan 20

vs Movsar Evloev · Jan 21

latest

Eiji Mitsuoka

oldest →

KOvs Takanori Gomi · Feb 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nik LentzMetricEiji Mitsuoka

3.44

Strikes / min

1.49

3.25

Strikes absorbed / min

2.26

50%

Strike defense

45%

3.30

TDs / 15 min

2.30

43%

Takedown defense

20%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.19evenly matched on net striking-0.77

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nik LentzEiji Mitsuoka

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nik Lentz(10 fights)Eiji Mitsuoka(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +43.3|Blue -43.3

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red +3.3|Blue -3.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Layoff

Red +28.0|Blue -28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nik LentzTargetEiji Mitsuoka

By target zone

85% acc · 67%

Head

44% acc · 80%

100% acc · 12%

Body

100% acc · 20%

100% acc · 21%

Leg

By position

50% acc · 9%

Distance

50% acc · 80%

92% acc · 36%

Clinch

0% acc

100% acc · 55%

Ground

100% acc · 20%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nik Lentz rounds

even

Eiji Mitsuoka rounds

Round 1Nik Lentz edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns4

Control2:52

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

33 / 37

Sig Strikes

5 / 10

89%

Sig Str %

50%

59 / 67

Total Strikes

6 / 11

4 / 4

TDs

0 / 2

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:52

Ctrl Time

0:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Eiji Mitsuoka	5 / 10	6 / 11	0 / 2	0
1	Nik Lentz	33 / 37	59 / 67	4 / 4	0

Nik Lentz

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights22

Eiji Mitsuoka

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach—

Fights2