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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Nik Lentz won · S-DEC R3

Elo1395

Elo1356

Nik LentzvsDanny CastilloUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowboy 2 · Saturday, December 19, 2015Orlando, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Nik Lentz won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupNik Lentz: WrestlervsDanny Castillo: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Nik Lentz wins(72.5%)

Actual result: Nik Lentz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nik Lentz at -140 American odds

+$71 profit

$171 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nik Lentz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Danny Castillo enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Danny Castillo has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Danny Castillo has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Nik Lentz

Red Corner

Danny Castillo

Blue Corner

-140

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1395

Elo

1356

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'9"

172.72 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nik LentzL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Gray Maynard · Oct 18

vs Scott Holtzman · Feb 19

KOvs Charles Oliveira · May 19

vs Arnold Allen · Jan 20

vs Movsar Evloev · Jan 21

latest

Danny CastilloL3 streak

oldest →

vs Edson Barboza · Dec 13

KOvs Charlie Brenneman · Apr 14

vs Tony Ferguson · Aug 14

KOvs Paul Felder · Jan 15

vs Jim Miller · Jul 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nik LentzMetricDanny Castillo

3.44

Strikes / min

2.57

3.25

Strikes absorbed / min

1.96

50%

Strike defense

62%

3.30

TDs / 15 min

2.95

43%

Takedown defense

63%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.19evenly matched on net striking+0.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nik LentzDanny Castillo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nik Lentz(10 fights)Danny Castillo(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +39.0|Blue -39.0

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +56.0|Blue -56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nik LentzTargetDanny Castillo

By target zone

38% acc · 64%

Head

42% acc · 82%

64% acc · 27%

Body

80% acc · 7%

83% acc · 8%

Leg

86% acc · 11%

By position

43% acc · 85%

Distance

44% acc · 89%

53% acc · 15%

Clinch

86% acc · 11%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nik Lentz rounds

even

Danny Castillo rounds

Round 1Danny Castillo edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control0:29

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:57Control

Round 2Nik Lentz edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns1

Control0:33

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:45Control

Round 3Danny Castillo edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control0:33

24Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:51Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

59 / 132

Sig Strikes

57 / 124

43.3%

Sig Str %

49.3%

72 / 148

Total Strikes

60 / 127

3 / 6

TDs

2 / 6

61%

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

1:35

Ctrl Time

3:33

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Danny Castillo	15 / 23	17 / 25	0 / 3	0
1	Nik Lentz	12 / 31	16 / 38	1 / 2	2
2	Danny Castillo	18 / 51	19 / 52	0 / 1	0
2	Nik Lentz	25 / 54	29 / 58	1 / 1	0
3	Danny Castillo	24 / 50	24 / 50	2 / 2	0
3	Nik Lentz	22 / 47	27 / 52	1 / 3	0

Nik Lentz

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights22

Danny Castillo

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights14