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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Charles Oliveira won · SUB R3

Elo1395

Elo1521

Nik LentzvsCharles OliveiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves · Saturday, May 30, 2015Goiania, Goias, Brazil

Official fight result

Charles Oliveira won

SUB · Round 3 · 1:10

Style matchupNik Lentz: WrestlervsCharles Oliveira: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Nik Lentz wins(64.8%)

Actual result: Charles Oliveira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nik Lentz at +225 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nik Lentz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Charles Oliveira has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Nik Lentz

Red Corner

Charles Oliveira

Blue Corner

+225

(31%)

Vegas Odds

-265

(73%)

1395

Elo

1521

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'10"

172.72 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nik LentzL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Gray Maynard · Oct 18

vs Scott Holtzman · Feb 19

KOvs Charles Oliveira · May 19

vs Arnold Allen · Jan 20

vs Movsar Evloev · Jan 21

latest

Charles OliveiraW2 streak

oldest →

vs Arman Tsarukyan · Apr 24

vs Michael Chandler · Nov 24

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 25

SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Oct 25

vs Max Holloway · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nik LentzMetricCharles Oliveira

3.44

Strikes / min

3.23

3.25

Strikes absorbed / min

3.05

50%

Strike defense

48%

3.30

TDs / 15 min

2.29

43%

Takedown defense

54%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

2.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.19evenly matched on net striking+0.18

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nik LentzCharles Oliveira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nik Lentz(10 fights)Charles Oliveira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -126.4|Blue +126.4

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +1.9|Blue -1.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +216.0|Blue -216.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nik LentzTargetCharles Oliveira

By target zone

45% acc · 65%

Head

71% acc · 56%

80% acc · 22%

Body

89% acc · 39%

83% acc · 14%

Leg

60% acc · 5%

By position

46% acc · 51%

Distance

65% acc · 20%

57% acc · 32%

Clinch

85% acc · 36%

86% acc · 16%

Ground

76% acc · 44%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nik Lentz rounds

even

Charles Oliveira rounds

Round 1Charles Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control1:57

Knockdowns0

45Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:26Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Nik Lentz edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns2

Control4:05

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:16Control

Round 3Charles Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:19

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:16Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

37 / 69

Sig Strikes

64 / 84

42%

Sig Str %

76.7%

58 / 95

Total Strikes

84 / 105

2 / 10

TDs

1 / 2

22%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

6:21

Ctrl Time

1:58

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Charles Oliveira	45 / 60	52 / 68	1 / 2	0
1	Nik Lentz	27 / 45	34 / 53	0 / 6	0
2	Charles Oliveira	12 / 14	25 / 27	0 / 0	1
2	Nik Lentz	9 / 17	23 / 35	2 / 3	1
3	Charles Oliveira	7 / 10	7 / 10	0 / 0	1
3	Nik Lentz	1 / 7	1 / 7	0 / 1	0

Nik Lentz

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights22

Charles Oliveira

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights36