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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Zak Cummings won · U-DEC R3

Elo1508

Elo1499

Nicolas DalbyvsZak CummingsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Dos Santos · Sunday, April 10, 2016Zagreb, Croatia

Official fight result

Zak Cummings won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupNicolas Dalby: Well-roundedvsZak Cummings: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Nicolas Dalby wins(54.4%)

Actual result: Zak Cummings wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nicolas Dalby at -105 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Zak Cummings (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Nicolas Dalby

Red Corner

Zak Cummings

Blue Corner

-105

(51%)

Vegas Odds

-115

(53%)

1508

Elo

1499

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

6'0"

187.96 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nicolas Dalby

oldest →

vs Muslim Salikhov · Jun 23

KOvs Gabriel Bonfim · Nov 23

vs Rinat Fakhretdinov · Jun 24

KOvs Randy Brown · Apr 25

vs Saygid Izagakhmaev · Nov 25

latest

Zak CummingsW2 streak

oldest →

vs Trevor Smith · Dec 18

SUBvs Trevin Giles · May 19

vs Omari Akhmedov · Sep 19

vs Alessio Di Chirico · Aug 20

KOvs Ed Herman · Apr 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nicolas DalbyMetricZak Cummings

3.88

Strikes / min

2.96

3.51

Strikes absorbed / min

2.91

52%

Strike defense

55%

0.90

TDs / 15 min

0.62

59%

Takedown defense

66%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.37evenly matched on net striking+0.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nicolas DalbyZak Cummings

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nicolas Dalby(10 fights)Zak Cummings(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +8.9|Blue -8.9

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red +56.0|Blue -56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nicolas DalbyTargetZak Cummings

By target zone

28% acc · 51%

Head

29% acc · 68%

46% acc · 19%

Body

58% acc · 20%

74% acc · 30%

Leg

100% acc · 13%

By position

37% acc · 91%

Distance

34% acc · 91%

44% acc · 7%

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

50% acc · 2%

Ground

57% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nicolas Dalby rounds

even

Zak Cummings rounds

Round 1Zak Cummings edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:06

Knockdowns0

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:59Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Zak Cummings edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Zak Cummings edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:01

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:32Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

57 / 150

Sig Strikes

56 / 158

38%

Sig Str %

35%

69 / 163

Total Strikes

77 / 183

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 3

TD %

33%

Sub Att

Rev

0:07

Ctrl Time

3:31

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Zak Cummings	13 / 42	13 / 43	0 / 0	1
1	Nicolas Dalby	17 / 53	17 / 54	0 / 0	0
2	Zak Cummings	26 / 75	26 / 75	0 / 0	0
2	Nicolas Dalby	23 / 57	23 / 57	0 / 0	0
3	Zak Cummings	17 / 41	38 / 65	1 / 3	0
3	Nicolas Dalby	17 / 40	29 / 52	0 / 1	0

Nicolas Dalby

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights14

Zak Cummings

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights14