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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Nicolas Dalby won · S-DEC R3

Elo1508

Elo1460

Nicolas DalbyvsSaygid IzagakhmaevUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · Saturday, November 22, 2025Doha, Qatar

Official fight result

Nicolas Dalby won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupNicolas Dalby: Well-roundedvsSaygid Izagakhmaev: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Nicolas Dalby wins(78.7%)

Actual result: Nicolas Dalby wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nicolas Dalby at +270 American odds

+$270 profit

$370 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Saygid Izagakhmaev has 41pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Nicolas Dalby

Red Corner

Saygid Izagakhmaev

Blue Corner

+270

(27%)

Vegas Odds

-335

(77%)

1508

Elo

1460

Age

Orthodox

Stance

N/A

5'11"

Height

6'0"

187.96 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nicolas DalbyL2 streak

oldest →

vs Warlley Alves · Jan 23

vs Muslim Salikhov · Jun 23

KOvs Gabriel Bonfim · Nov 23

vs Rinat Fakhretdinov · Jun 24

KOvs Randy Brown · Apr 25

latest

Saygid Izagakhmaev

oldest →

DECvs Abubakar Vagaev · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nicolas DalbyMetricSaygid Izagakhmaev

3.88

Strikes / min

1.33

3.51

Strikes absorbed / min

1.73

52%

Strike defense

58%

0.90

TDs / 15 min

4.00

59%

Takedown defense

100%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.37evenly matched on net striking-0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nicolas DalbySaygid Izagakhmaev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nicolas Dalby(10 fights)Saygid Izagakhmaev(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +48.0|Blue -48.0

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -49.1|Blue +49.1

Grappler Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nicolas DalbyTargetSaygid Izagakhmaev

By target zone

32% acc · 50%

Head

48% acc · 55%

50% acc · 31%

Body

90% acc · 45%

83% acc · 19%

Leg

0% acc

By position

28% acc · 42%

Distance

42% acc · 40%

62% acc · 50%

Clinch

83% acc · 50%

100% acc · 8%

Ground

67% acc · 10%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nicolas Dalby rounds

even

Saygid Izagakhmaev rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control3:06

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:53Control

Round 2Saygid Izagakhmaev edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control1:55

2Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:47Control

Round 3Nicolas Dalby edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control1:28

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:38Control

Fight Stats

Totals

26 / 63

Sig Strikes

20 / 34

39.3%

Sig Str %

56.3%

87 / 140

Total Strikes

65 / 88

0 / 2

TDs

4 / 10

TD %

45.3%

Sub Att

Rev

6:29

Ctrl Time

5:18

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Saygid Izagakhmaev	7 / 12	42 / 52	1 / 2
1	Nicolas Dalby	5 / 15	28 / 47	0 / 1
2	Saygid Izagakhmaev	2 / 4	8 / 14	2 / 3
2	Nicolas Dalby	3 / 7	25 / 35	0 / 1
3	Saygid Izagakhmaev	11 / 18	15 / 22	1 / 5
3	Nicolas Dalby	18 / 41	34 / 58	0 / 0

Nicolas Dalby

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights14

Saygid Izagakhmaev

Stance—

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights2