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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Jesse Ronson won · SUB R1

Elo1508

Elo1437

Nicolas DalbyvsJesse RonsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · Saturday, July 25, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Jesse Ronson won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:48

Style matchupNicolas Dalby: Well-roundedvsJesse Ronson: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Nicolas Dalby wins(66.2%)

Actual result: Jesse Ronson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nicolas Dalby at -265 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jesse Ronson enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Jesse Ronson (53.5%).
Nicolas Dalby has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Nicolas Dalby

Red Corner

Jesse Ronson

Blue Corner

-265

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+205

(33%)

1508

Elo

1437

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

5'10"

187.96 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nicolas Dalby

oldest →

vs Muslim Salikhov · Jun 23

KOvs Gabriel Bonfim · Nov 23

vs Rinat Fakhretdinov · Jun 24

KOvs Randy Brown · Apr 25

vs Saygid Izagakhmaev · Nov 25

latest

Jesse RonsonL5 streak

oldest →

vs Michel Prazeres · Sep 13

vs Francisco Trinaldo · Feb 14

vs Kevin Lee · Jul 14

SUBvs Rafa Garcia · Apr 22

KOvs Joaquim Silva · Oct 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nicolas DalbyMetricJesse Ronson

3.88

Strikes / min

3.54

3.51

Strikes absorbed / min

3.39

52%

Strike defense

57%

0.90

TDs / 15 min

0.46

59%

Takedown defense

57%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.37evenly matched on net striking+0.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nicolas DalbyJesse Ronson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nicolas Dalby(10 fights)Jesse Ronson(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +71.4|Blue -71.4

Recent Form

Red +1.9|Blue -1.9

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -1910.0|Blue +1910.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nicolas DalbyTargetJesse Ronson

By target zone

26% acc · 50%

Head

65% acc · 73%

80% acc · 40%

Body

25% acc · 3%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

100% acc · 23%

By position

39% acc · 85%

Distance

66% acc · 70%

50% acc · 15%

Clinch

40% acc · 7%

Ground

88% acc · 23%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nicolas Dalby rounds

even

Jesse Ronson rounds

Round 1Jesse Ronson edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:26

Knockdowns0

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:21Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

20 / 50

Sig Strikes

30 / 45

40%

Sig Str %

66%

20 / 53

Total Strikes

31 / 46

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:26

Ctrl Time

0:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jesse Ronson	30 / 45	31 / 46	0 / 0	1
1	Nicolas Dalby	20 / 50	20 / 53	0 / 0	0

Nicolas Dalby

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights14

Jesse Ronson

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights6