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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Saparbeg Safarov won · U-DEC R3

Elo1499

Elo1492

Nicolae NegumereanuvsSaparbeg SafarovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal · Saturday, March 16, 2019London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Saparbeg Safarov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupNicolae Negumereanu: Well-roundedvsSaparbeg Safarov: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Saparbeg Safarov wins(54.4%)

Actual result: Saparbeg Safarov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Saparbeg Safarov at +150 American odds

+$150 profit

$250 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Saparbeg Safarov enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Nicolae Negumereanu has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Nicolae Negumereanu

Red Corner

Saparbeg Safarov

Blue Corner

-170

(63%)

Vegas Odds

+150

(40%)

1499

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'1"

198.12 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nicolae Negumereanu

oldest →

vs Aleksa Camur · Jun 21

KOvs Ike Villanueva · Oct 21

vs Kennedy Nzechukwu · Mar 22

KOvs Ihor Potieria · Jul 22

KOvs Carlos Ulberg · Nov 22

latest

Saparbeg SafarovL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Gian Villante · Dec 16

SUBvs Tyson Pedro · Feb 18

SUBvs Rodolfo Vieira · Mar 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nicolae NegumereanuMetricSaparbeg Safarov

3.58

Strikes / min

4.03

5.56

Strikes absorbed / min

2.96

39%

Strike defense

47%

1.02

TDs / 15 min

2.52

62%

Takedown defense

33%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.98Δ 3.05 — meaningful gap+1.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nicolae NegumereanuSaparbeg Safarov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nicolae Negumereanu(6 fights)Saparbeg Safarov(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +7.1|Blue -7.1

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +48.8|Blue -48.8

Grappler Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nicolae NegumereanuTargetSaparbeg Safarov

By target zone

29% acc · 45%

Head

81% acc · 86%

43% acc · 27%

Body

100% acc · 3%

100% acc · 27%

Leg

80% acc · 11%

By position

37% acc · 64%

Distance

67% acc · 23%

50% acc · 36%

Clinch

67% acc · 6%

Ground

89% acc · 71%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nicolae Negumereanu rounds

even

Saparbeg Safarov rounds

Round 1Saparbeg Safarov edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:00Control

Round 2Saparbeg Safarov edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

35Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:15Control

Round 3Saparbeg Safarov edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:31Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 27

Sig Strikes

70 / 86

28.7%

Sig Str %

84.3%

20 / 36

Total Strikes

139 / 156

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 5

—

TD %

66.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

10:46

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Saparbeg Safarov	17 / 22	26 / 31	1 / 2
1	Nicolae Negumereanu	7 / 14	12 / 19	0 / 0
2	Saparbeg Safarov	35 / 46	50 / 62	1 / 1
2	Nicolae Negumereanu	4 / 11	7 / 14	0 / 0
3	Saparbeg Safarov	18 / 18	63 / 63	1 / 2
3	Nicolae Negumereanu	0 / 2	1 / 3	0 / 0

Nicolae Negumereanu

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights6

Saparbeg Safarov

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights4