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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Nick Ring won · SUB R3
Elo1353
Elo1352
James Head

Nick RingvsJames HeadUFC Prediction Result

UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin · Saturday, June 11, 2011Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Official fight result

Nick Ring won

SUB · Round 3 · 3:33

Model Prediction: Nick Ring wins(69.3%)

Actual result: Nick Ring wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nick Ring at -130 American odds

+$77 profit

$177 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Nick Ring has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Nick Ring (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Nick Ring
Red Corner
VS
James Head
Blue Corner
-130
(57%)
Vegas Odds
+110
(48%)
1353
Elo
1352
47
Age
42
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'1"
187.96 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nick RingL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Riki Fukuda · Feb 11
L
vs Tim Boetsch · Sep 11
W
vs Court McGee · Jul 12
L
vs Chris Camozzi · Mar 13
L
vs Caio Magalhaes · Dec 13
latest
James HeadL2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Papy Abedi · Apr 12
W
vs Brian Ebersole · Jul 12
L
KOvs Mike Pyle · Dec 12
L
SUBvs Jason High · Aug 13
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nick RingMetricJames Head
3.52
Strikes / min
2.75
3.48
Strikes absorbed / min
3.11
62%
Strike defense
49%
1.36
TDs / 15 min
0.41
52%
Takedown defense
66%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.04evenly matched on net striking-0.36

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1519 vs 1500Strikes41.0 vs —Takedowns0.0 vs —Sub Atts0.00 vs —Form1.0 vs 0.0
Nick RingJames Head

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Nick Ring(6 fights)James Head(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Recent Form
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Grappler Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nick RingTargetJames Head

By target zone

31
47% acc · 53%
Head
21
45% acc · 70%
10
83% acc · 17%
Body
8
100% acc · 27%
17
85% acc · 29%
Leg
1
100% acc · 3%

By position

30
47% acc · 52%
Distance
21
47% acc · 70%
5
83% acc · 9%
Clinch
8
80% acc · 27%
23
82% acc · 40%
Ground
1
100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Nick Ring rounds
1
even
0
James Head rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes28
Takedowns2
Control1:36
Knockdowns0
29Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:21Control
1Knockdowns
Round 2Nick Ring edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns2
Control4:23
0Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
Round 3Nick Ring edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns1
Control2:57
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
58 / 98
Sig Strikes
30 / 56
59.7%
Sig Str %
27%
135 / 195
Total Strikes
43 / 69
5 / 5
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
8:56
Ctrl Time
0:24

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1James Head29 / 4736 / 540 / 00
1Nick Ring28 / 5239 / 662 / 20
2James Head0 / 43 / 70 / 00
2Nick Ring20 / 2856 / 732 / 20
3James Head1 / 54 / 80 / 00
3Nick Ring10 / 1840 / 561 / 11

Nick Ring

StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights6

James Head

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights5