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Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Cody Donovan won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1352
Nick Penner
Elo1353
Cody Donovan

Nick PennervsCody DonovanUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs Pearson · Friday, December 14, 2012Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia

Official fight result

Cody Donovan won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:35

Model Prediction: Nick Penner wins(65.4%)

Actual result: Cody Donovan wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nick Penner at -140 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Cody Donovan enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Cody Donovan is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Nick Penner has lost 100% of fights by KO.
  • Nick Penner has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Nick Penner (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Nick Penner
Red Corner
VS
Cody Donovan
Blue Corner
-140
(58%)
Vegas Odds
+130
(43%)
1352
Elo
1353
46
Age
45
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'4"
Height
6'3"
195.58 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nick Penner
oldest →
L
KOvs Anthony Perosh · Mar 12
latest
Cody DonovanL3 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Ovince Saint Preux · Aug 13
L
KOvs Gian Villante · Nov 13
L
KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jul 14
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nick PennerMetricCody Donovan
1.25
Strikes / min
5.61
4.60
Strikes absorbed / min
5.44
38%
Strike defense
45%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
1.67
40%
Takedown defense
0%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-3.35Δ 3.52 — meaningful gap+0.17

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1485 vs 1500Strikes5.0 vs —Takedowns0.0 vs —Sub Atts0.00 vs —Form-1.0 vs 0.0
Nick PennerCody Donovan

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Nick Penner(2 fights)Cody Donovan(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -1.5|Blue +1.5
Recent Form
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Grappler Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nick PennerTargetCody Donovan

By target zone

6
35% acc · 86%
Head
9
56% acc · 47%
1
100% acc · 14%
Body
9
90% acc · 47%
0
Leg
1
100% acc · 5%

By position

5
42% acc · 71%
Distance
6
55% acc · 32%
1
33% acc · 14%
Clinch
8
89% acc · 42%
1
33% acc · 14%
Ground
5
71% acc · 26%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Nick Penner rounds
0
even
1
Cody Donovan rounds
Round 1Cody Donovan edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control1:48
Knockdowns1
19Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:59Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
1
7 / 18
Sig Strikes
19 / 27
38%
Sig Str %
70%
23 / 37
Total Strikes
31 / 44
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 1
—
TD %
100%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:48
Ctrl Time
0:59

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Cody Donovan19 / 2731 / 441 / 10
1Nick Penner7 / 1823 / 370 / 00

Nick Penner

StanceSouthpaw
Height76.0"
Reach—
Fights2

Cody Donovan

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights4