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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Rick Story won · S-DEC R3

Elo1351

Elo1491

Nick OsipczakvsRick StoryUFC Prediction Result

UFC 112: Invincible · Saturday, April 10, 2010Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Rick Story won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupNick Osipczak: Submission grapplervsRick Story: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Rick Story wins(50.7%)

Actual result: Rick Story wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rick Story at -165 American odds

+$61 profit

$161 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rick Story has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Rick Story (53.5%).
Nick Osipczak has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Nick Osipczak

Red Corner

Rick Story

Blue Corner

+145

(41%)

Vegas Odds

-165

(62%)

1351

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'2"

Height

5'9"

193.04 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nick OsipczakL2 streak

oldest →

vs Greg Soto · Aug 10

vs Duane Ludwig · Nov 10

latest

Rick Story

oldest →

vs Kelvin Gastelum · Mar 14

SUBvs Leonardo Mafra · Jul 14

vs Gunnar Nelson · Oct 14

vs Tarec Saffiedine · May 16

KOvs Donald Cerrone · Aug 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nick OsipczakMetricRick Story

2.83

Strikes / min

3.80

3.77

Strikes absorbed / min

2.17

50%

Strike defense

62%

1.20

TDs / 15 min

2.53

71%

Takedown defense

63%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.94Δ 2.57 — meaningful gap+1.63

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nick OsipczakRick Story

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nick Osipczak(3 fights)Rick Story(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -139.7|Blue +139.7

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nick OsipczakTargetRick Story

By target zone

43% acc · 32%

Head

36% acc · 68%

94% acc · 54%

Body

77% acc · 32%

100% acc · 14%

Leg

0% acc

By position

42% acc · 29%

Distance

20% acc · 16%

91% acc · 71%

Clinch

75% acc · 19%

Ground

51% acc · 65%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nick Osipczak rounds

even

Rick Story rounds

Round 1Rick Story edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:41Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control1:02

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:53Control

Round 3Nick Osipczak edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control1:23

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:20Control

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 41

Sig Strikes

31 / 72

49.7%

Sig Str %

42.7%

49 / 63

Total Strikes

83 / 130

2 / 4

TDs

3 / 10

66.5%

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

2:25

Ctrl Time

9:54

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Rick Story	16 / 35	47 / 68	1 / 2	0
1	Nick Osipczak	0 / 3	1 / 4	0 / 0	1
2	Rick Story	8 / 16	18 / 27	1 / 4	0
2	Nick Osipczak	13 / 16	22 / 25	1 / 1	0
3	Rick Story	7 / 21	18 / 35	1 / 4	1
3	Nick Osipczak	15 / 22	26 / 34	1 / 3	0

Nick Osipczak

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights3

Rick Story

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights16