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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Greg Soto won · U-DEC R3

Elo1351

Elo1490

Nick OsipczakvsGreg SotoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2 · Saturday, August 28, 2010Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Greg Soto won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupNick Osipczak: Submission grapplervsGreg Soto: Submission grappler

Submission battle — patience and grip-fighting decide it on the mat.

Model Prediction: Nick Osipczak wins(73.4%)

Actual result: Greg Soto wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nick Osipczak at -200 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nick Osipczak has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Nick Osipczak

Red Corner

Greg Soto

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1351

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

5'11"

193.04 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nick OsipczakL2 streak

oldest →

vs Rick Story · Apr 10

vs Duane Ludwig · Nov 10

latest

Greg SotoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Matthew Riddle · Mar 10

SUBvs Daniel Roberts · Jan 11

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nick OsipczakMetricGreg Soto

2.83

Strikes / min

3.21

3.77

Strikes absorbed / min

2.61

50%

Strike defense

52%

1.20

TDs / 15 min

1.49

71%

Takedown defense

44%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.94Δ 1.54 — meaningful gap+0.60

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nick OsipczakGreg Soto

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nick Osipczak(3 fights)Greg Soto(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -139.3|Blue +139.3

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +2.0|Blue -2.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nick OsipczakTargetGreg Soto

By target zone

38% acc · 72%

Head

61% acc · 63%

70% acc · 24%

Body

96% acc · 34%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

67% acc · 3%

By position

30% acc · 41%

Distance

36% acc · 14%

55% acc · 41%

Clinch

83% acc · 14%

100% acc · 17%

Ground

83% acc · 71%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nick Osipczak rounds

even

Greg Soto rounds

Round 1Greg Soto edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:52

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:19Control

Round 2Greg Soto edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:07

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:01Control

Round 3Greg Soto edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:00

37Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:42Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 67

Sig Strikes

70 / 100

29.3%

Sig Str %

67.7%

44 / 83

Total Strikes

152 / 212

0 / 1

TDs

3 / 7

TD %

58.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:59

Ctrl Time

11:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Greg Soto	18 / 35	28 / 48	1 / 4	0
1	Nick Osipczak	20 / 41	27 / 48	0 / 1	0
2	Greg Soto	15 / 24	51 / 73	1 / 2	0
2	Nick Osipczak	9 / 22	15 / 29	0 / 0	1
3	Greg Soto	37 / 41	73 / 91	1 / 1	1
3	Nick Osipczak	0 / 4	2 / 6	0 / 0	0

Nick Osipczak

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights3

Greg Soto

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights3