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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Jacob Malkoun won · U-DEC R3

Elo1439

Elo1529

Nick MaximovvsJacob MalkounUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · Saturday, October 15, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jacob Malkoun won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupNick Maximov: WrestlervsJacob Malkoun: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Jacob Malkoun wins(62.5%)

Actual result: Jacob Malkoun wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jacob Malkoun at +120 American odds

+$120 profit

$220 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jacob Malkoun enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Jacob Malkoun has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Nick Maximov (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Nick Maximov

Red Corner

Jacob Malkoun

Blue Corner

-140

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1439

Elo

1529

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'9"

193.04 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nick Maximov

oldest →

vs Cody Brundage · Sep 21

vs Punahele Soriano · Feb 22

SUBvs Andre Petroski · May 22

latest

Jacob MalkounW3 streak

oldest →

vs Brendan Allen · Jun 22

vs Cody Brundage · Sep 23

KOvs Andre Petroski · Mar 24

vs Torrez Finney · Jan 26

DECvs Gerald Meerschaert · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nick MaximovMetricJacob Malkoun

1.93

Strikes / min

4.23

2.64

Strikes absorbed / min

2.33

46%

Strike defense

55%

4.16

TDs / 15 min

5.39

35%

Takedown defense

55%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.71Δ 2.61 — meaningful gap+1.90

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nick MaximovJacob Malkoun

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nick Maximov(4 fights)Jacob Malkoun(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -90.1|Blue +90.1

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +28.0|Blue -28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nick MaximovTargetJacob Malkoun

By target zone

30% acc · 85%

Head

49% acc · 94%

80% acc · 12%

Body

80% acc · 5%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

100% acc · 1%

By position

34% acc · 100%

Distance

47% acc · 80%

Clinch

50% acc · 5%

0% acc

Ground

87% acc · 16%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nick Maximov rounds

even

Jacob Malkoun rounds

Round 1Jacob Malkoun edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:04

36Sig. strikes

5Takedowns

1:10Control

Round 2Jacob Malkoun edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

36Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:42Control

Round 3Jacob Malkoun edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

3:45Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

34 / 102

Sig Strikes

83 / 164

35.7%

Sig Str %

49.7%

56 / 124

Total Strikes

129 / 214

0 / 0

TDs

9 / 13

—

TD %

65.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:04

Ctrl Time

7:37

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jacob Malkoun	36 / 75	38 / 77	5 / 7
1	Nick Maximov	19 / 61	19 / 61	0 / 0
2	Jacob Malkoun	36 / 66	61 / 92	1 / 2
2	Nick Maximov	7 / 24	12 / 29	0 / 0
3	Jacob Malkoun	11 / 23	30 / 45	3 / 4
3	Nick Maximov	8 / 17	25 / 34	0 / 0

Nick Maximov

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights4

Jacob Malkoun

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8