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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Nick Hein won · U-DEC R3
Elo1373
Nick Hein
Elo1359

Nick HeinvsYusuke KasuyaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · Saturday, September 26, 2015Saitama, Japan

Official fight result

Nick Hein won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Nick Hein wins(68.0%)

Actual result: Nick Hein wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nick Hein at -365 American odds

+$27 profit

$127 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Nick Hein enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Nick Hein has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Nick Hein has 83pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Nick Hein
Red Corner
VS
Yusuke Kasuya
Blue Corner
-365
(78%)
Vegas Odds
+305
(25%)
1373
Elo
1359
42
Age
36
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
5'6"
Height
5'7"
167.64 cm
Reach
170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nick HeinL3 streak
oldest →
W
vs Lukasz Sajewski · Jun 15
W
vs Tae Hyun Bang · Sep 16
L
SUBvs Davi Ramos · May 18
L
vs Damir Hadzovic · Jul 18
L
KOvs Frank Camacho · Jun 19
latest
Yusuke Kasuya
oldest →
L
KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Nov 16
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nick HeinMetricYusuke Kasuya
2.65
Strikes / min
2.17
3.61
Strikes absorbed / min
4.34
59%
Strike defense
48%
0.86
TDs / 15 min
1.36
83%
Takedown defense
0%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.96Δ 1.21 — meaningful gap-2.17

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1519 vs 1500Strikes43.0 vs —Takedowns1.0 vs —Sub Atts0.00 vs —Form0.4 vs 0.0
Nick HeinYusuke Kasuya

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Nick Hein(8 fights)Yusuke Kasuya(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +14.7|Blue -14.7
Recent Form
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Striker Score
Red -48.1|Blue +48.1
Grappler Score
Red -49.8|Blue +49.8
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nick HeinTargetYusuke Kasuya

By target zone

33
35% acc · 72%
Head
20
29% acc · 45%
5
63% acc · 11%
Body
15
83% acc · 34%
8
89% acc · 17%
Leg
9
82% acc · 20%

By position

45
41% acc · 98%
Distance
43
44% acc · 98%
1
50% acc · 2%
Clinch
1
100% acc · 2%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Nick Hein rounds
1
even
1
Yusuke Kasuya rounds
Round 1Yusuke Kasuya edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns0
Control0:00
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Nick Hein edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control0:00
18Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Even round
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns0
Control0:02
14Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:03Control

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
46 / 112
Sig Strikes
44 / 99
39.7%
Sig Str %
43.7%
50 / 116
Total Strikes
44 / 99
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 4
—
TD %
33.3%
0
Sub Att
0
1
Rev
0
0:02
Ctrl Time
0:03

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Yusuke Kasuya12 / 3312 / 330 / 20
1Nick Hein9 / 2810 / 290 / 00
2Yusuke Kasuya18 / 3418 / 340 / 10
2Nick Hein20 / 4620 / 460 / 00
3Yusuke Kasuya14 / 3214 / 321 / 10
3Nick Hein17 / 3820 / 410 / 00

Nick Hein

StanceSouthpaw
Height66.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights8

Yusuke Kasuya

StanceSouthpaw
Height67.0"
Reach—
Fights2