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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Nick Hein won · U-DEC R3

Elo1373

Elo1514

Nick HeinvsDrew DoberUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousasi · Saturday, May 31, 2014Berlin, Germany

Official fight result

Nick Hein won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupNick Hein: Well-roundedvsDrew Dober: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Drew Dober wins(57.2%)

Actual result: Nick Hein wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Drew Dober at +130 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nick Hein enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Nick Hein has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Drew Dober has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Nick Hein

Red Corner

Drew Dober

Blue Corner

-140

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1373

Elo

1514

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'6"

Height

5'8"

167.64 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nick HeinL3 streak

oldest →

vs Yusuke Kasuya · Sep 15

vs Tae Hyun Bang · Sep 16

SUBvs Davi Ramos · May 18

vs Damir Hadzovic · Jul 18

KOvs Frank Camacho · Jun 19

latest

Drew DoberW2 streak

oldest →

vs Renato Moicano · Feb 24

KOvs Jean Silva · Jul 24

KOvs Manuel Torres · Mar 25

KOvs Kyle Prepolec · Oct 25

KOvs Michael Johnson · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nick HeinMetricDrew Dober

2.65

Strikes / min

4.48

3.61

Strikes absorbed / min

4.33

59%

Strike defense

53%

0.86

TDs / 15 min

0.61

83%

Takedown defense

58%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.96Δ 1.11 — meaningful gap+0.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nick HeinDrew Dober

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nick Hein(8 fights)Drew Dober(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -140.5|Blue +140.5

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Grappler Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nick HeinTargetDrew Dober

By target zone

44% acc · 84%

Head

31% acc · 63%

86% acc · 12%

Body

60% acc · 18%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

75% acc · 18%

By position

48% acc · 98%

Distance

32% acc · 76%

50% acc · 2%

Clinch

100% acc · 14%

Ground

100% acc · 10%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nick Hein rounds

even

Drew Dober rounds

Round 1Nick Hein edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns2

Control2:22

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:15Control

Round 2Drew Dober edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control1:55

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:35Control

Round 3Nick Hein edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:09Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

50 / 105

Sig Strikes

49 / 127

47%

Sig Str %

39.7%

87 / 148

Total Strikes

97 / 178

2 / 6

TDs

0 / 4

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

4:17

Ctrl Time

2:59

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Drew Dober	11 / 39	26 / 56	0 / 1
1	Nick Hein	13 / 22	40 / 55	2 / 2
2	Drew Dober	20 / 34	41 / 56	0 / 0
2	Nick Hein	9 / 28	13 / 32	0 / 4
3	Drew Dober	18 / 54	30 / 66	0 / 3
3	Nick Hein	28 / 55	34 / 61	0 / 0

Nick Hein

StanceSouthpaw

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights8

Drew Dober

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights26