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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Robbie Lawler won · KO/TKO R3
Elo1408
Nick Diaz
Elo1499
Robbie Lawler

Nick DiazvsRobbie LawlerUFC Prediction Result

UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · Saturday, September 25, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Robbie Lawler won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 0:44

Style matchupNick Diaz: Submission grapplervsRobbie Lawler: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Robbie Lawler wins(55.3%)

Actual result: Robbie Lawler wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Robbie Lawler at -160 American odds

+$63 profit

$163 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Nick Diaz
Red Corner
VS
Robbie Lawler
Blue Corner
+140
(42%)
Vegas Odds
-160
(62%)
1408
Elo
1499
42
Age
44
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
6'1"
Height
5'11"
193.04 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nick DiazL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs BJ Penn · Oct 11
L
vs Carlos Condit · Feb 12
L
vs Georges St-Pierre · Mar 13
latest
Robbie Lawler
oldest →
L
SUBvs Ben Askren · Mar 19
L
vs Colby Covington · Aug 19
L
SUBvs Neil Magny · Aug 20
L
KOvs Bryan Barberena · Jul 22
W
KOvs Niko Price · Jul 23
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nick DiazMetricRobbie Lawler
5.71
Strikes / min
3.85
3.84
Strikes absorbed / min
4.67
59%
Strike defense
59%
1.28
TDs / 15 min
0.65
60%
Takedown defense
65%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.87Δ 2.69 — meaningful gap-0.82

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1487 vs 1562Strikes5.7 vs 3.7Takedowns1.3 vs 0.7Sub Atts1.00 vs 0.00Form-0.6 vs -0.8
Nick DiazRobbie Lawler

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Nick Diaz(4 fights)Robbie Lawler(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -90.9|Blue +90.9
Recent Form
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red +2723.0|Blue -2723.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nick DiazTargetRobbie Lawler

By target zone

114
39% acc · 76%
Head
88
50% acc · 67%
36
80% acc · 24%
Body
33
94% acc · 25%
0
Leg
10
100% acc · 8%

By position

144
44% acc · 96%
Distance
99
54% acc · 76%
6
75% acc · 4%
Clinch
31
82% acc · 24%
0
Ground
1
100% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Nick Diaz rounds
0
even
1
Robbie Lawler rounds
Round 1Nick Diaz edged it
Sig. strikes71
Takedowns0
Control0:00
57Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Nick Diaz edged it
Sig. strikes73
Takedowns0
Control0:00
64Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:04Control
Round 3Robbie Lawler edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:00
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:10Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
150 / 339
Sig Strikes
131 / 221
41%
Sig Str %
60%
150 / 339
Total Strikes
131 / 221
0 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:14

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Robbie Lawler57 / 10757 / 1070 / 00
1Nick Diaz71 / 17671 / 1760 / 10
2Robbie Lawler64 / 9864 / 980 / 00
2Nick Diaz73 / 14573 / 1450 / 00
3Robbie Lawler10 / 1610 / 160 / 00
3Nick Diaz6 / 186 / 180 / 00

Nick Diaz

StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights4

Robbie Lawler

StanceSouthpaw
Height71.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights18