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Welterweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Carlos Condit won · U-DEC R5
Elo1408
Nick Diaz
Elo1494
Carlos Condit

Nick DiazvsCarlos ConditUFC Prediction Result

UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit · Saturday, February 4, 2012Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Carlos Condit won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupNick Diaz: Submission grapplervsCarlos Condit: Elusive striker

The grappler must close distance and chain wrestling. The elusive striker keeps space and picks shots.

Model Prediction: Nick Diaz wins(57.5%)

Actual result: Carlos Condit wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nick Diaz at -190 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Nick Diaz has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Nick Diaz (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Nick Diaz
Red Corner
VS
Carlos Condit
Blue Corner
-190
(66%)
Vegas Odds
+175
(36%)
1408
Elo
1494
42
Age
42
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'2"
193.04 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nick DiazL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs BJ Penn · Oct 11
L
vs Georges St-Pierre · Mar 13
L
KOvs Robbie Lawler · Sep 21
latest
Carlos Condit
oldest →
L
SUBvs Alex Oliveira · Apr 18
L
SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Dec 18
W
vs Court McGee · Oct 20
W
vs Matt Brown · Jan 21
L
vs Max Griffin · Jul 21
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nick DiazMetricCarlos Condit
5.71
Strikes / min
3.66
3.84
Strikes absorbed / min
2.67
59%
Strike defense
55%
1.28
TDs / 15 min
0.59
60%
Takedown defense
38%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.87evenly matched on net striking+0.99

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1518 vs 1554Strikes45.4 vs 33.6Takedowns1.2 vs 0.8Sub Atts1.09 vs 1.20Form1.0 vs 1.0
Nick DiazCarlos Condit

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Nick Diaz(4 fights)Carlos Condit(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -85.4|Blue +85.4
Recent Form
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red -119.0|Blue +119.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nick DiazTargetCarlos Condit

By target zone

57
32% acc · 54%
Head
52
27% acc · 34%
42
71% acc · 40%
Body
31
76% acc · 21%
6
60% acc · 6%
Leg
68
78% acc · 45%

By position

103
43% acc · 98%
Distance
150
47% acc · 99%
1
33% acc · 1%
Clinch
1
50% acc · 1%
1
100% acc · 1%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Nick Diaz rounds
0
even
4
Carlos Condit rounds
Round 1Carlos Condit edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns0
Control0:04
29Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Nick Diaz edged it
Sig. strikes32
Takedowns0
Control0:04
29Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Carlos Condit edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns0
Control0:02
32Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 4Carlos Condit edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:11
36Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 5Carlos Condit edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns1
Control1:24
25Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:04Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
105 / 246
Sig Strikes
151 / 320
41.4%
Sig Str %
48%
117 / 258
Total Strikes
159 / 329
1 / 3
TDs
0 / 0
50%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:45
Ctrl Time
0:04

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Carlos Condit29 / 6330 / 640 / 00
1Nick Diaz23 / 5528 / 600 / 00
2Carlos Condit29 / 7829 / 780 / 00
2Nick Diaz32 / 6435 / 670 / 00
3Carlos Condit32 / 7233 / 740 / 00
3Nick Diaz22 / 5424 / 560 / 00
4Nick Diaz11 / 2811 / 280 / 20
4Carlos Condit36 / 6337 / 640 / 00
5Carlos Condit25 / 4430 / 490 / 00
5Nick Diaz17 / 4519 / 471 / 10

Nick Diaz

StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights4

Carlos Condit

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights17