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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Nick Catone won · S-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1355

Nick CatonevsTom WatsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2 · Saturday, February 1, 2014Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Nick Catone won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupNick Catone: WrestlervsTom Watson: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Tom Watson wins(52.0%)

Actual result: Nick Catone wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tom Watson at -125 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tom Watson is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Nick Catone has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Nick Catone has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Nick Catone has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Nick Catone (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Nick Catone

Red Corner

Tom Watson

Blue Corner

+115

(47%)

Vegas Odds

-125

(56%)

1490

Elo

1355

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'1"

182.88 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nick CatoneL2 streak

oldest →

DECvs Costas Philippou · Mar 11

KOvs Chris Camozzi · Jun 12

SUBvs TJ Waldburger · Dec 12

latest

Tom WatsonL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Stanislav Nedkov · Feb 13

vs Thales Leites · Aug 13

vs Sam Alvey · Aug 14

vs Rafael Natal · Jan 15

vs Chris Camozzi · Aug 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nick CatoneMetricTom Watson

2.11

Strikes / min

4.01

2.32

Strikes absorbed / min

4.41

63%

Strike defense

50%

3.71

TDs / 15 min

0.15

83%

Takedown defense

43%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.21evenly matched on net striking-0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nick CatoneTom Watson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nick Catone(4 fights)Tom Watson(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +135.1|Blue -135.1

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red +231.0|Blue -231.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nick CatoneTargetTom Watson

By target zone

28% acc · 52%

Head

19% acc · 40%

33% acc · 3%

Body

33% acc · 10%

100% acc · 45%

Leg

89% acc · 50%

By position

33% acc · 65%

Distance

31% acc · 84%

57% acc · 13%

Clinch

67% acc · 12%

100% acc · 23%

Ground

67% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nick Catone rounds

even

Tom Watson rounds

Round 1Nick Catone edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control1:23

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns2

Control1:23

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Tom Watson edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns2

Control1:24

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Fight Stats

Totals

31 / 75

Sig Strikes

50 / 149

40.3%

Sig Str %

32.7%

34 / 78

Total Strikes

54 / 154

5 / 11

TDs

0 / 0

46.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

4:10

Ctrl Time

0:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Tom Watson	11 / 39	12 / 40	0 / 0
1	Nick Catone	16 / 30	16 / 30	1 / 2
2	Tom Watson	17 / 46	19 / 49	0 / 0
2	Nick Catone	7 / 26	7 / 26	2 / 5
3	Tom Watson	22 / 64	23 / 65	0 / 0
3	Nick Catone	8 / 19	11 / 22	2 / 4

Nick Catone

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights4

Tom Watson

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7