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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Chris Camozzi won · KO/TKO R3
Elo1490
Nick Catone
Elo1360
Chris Camozzi

Nick CatonevsChris CamozziUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida · Friday, June 22, 2012Atlantic City, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Chris Camozzi won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 1:51

Style matchupNick Catone: WrestlervsChris Camozzi: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Nick Catone wins(55.0%)

Actual result: Chris Camozzi wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nick Catone at -210 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Chris Camozzi enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Nick Catone has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Nick Catone (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Nick Catone
Red Corner
VS
Chris Camozzi
Blue Corner
-210
(68%)
Vegas Odds
+190
(34%)
1490
Elo
1360
44
Age
39
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'2"
182.88 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nick Catone
oldest →
W
DECvs Costas Philippou · Mar 11
L
SUBvs TJ Waldburger · Dec 12
W
vs Tom Watson · Feb 14
latest
Chris CamozziL3 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Joe Riggs · Feb 16
W
vs Vitor Miranda · May 16
L
SUBvs Thales Leites · Aug 16
L
vs Daniel Kelly · Nov 16
L
vs Trevor Smith · May 17
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nick CatoneMetricChris Camozzi
2.11
Strikes / min
3.57
2.32
Strikes absorbed / min
2.96
63%
Strike defense
56%
3.71
TDs / 15 min
0.27
83%
Takedown defense
57%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.21evenly matched on net striking+0.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1516 vs 1516Strikes28.2 vs 41.2Takedowns3.0 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.60 vs 0.60Form1.0 vs 0.1
Nick CatoneChris Camozzi

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801488149515031510← oldermost recent →
Nick Catone(4 fights)Chris Camozzi(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +129.8|Blue -129.8
Recent Form
Red +0.9|Blue -0.9
Striker Score
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Grappler Score
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Layoff
Red +315.0|Blue -315.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nick CatoneTargetChris Camozzi

By target zone

10
29% acc · 71%
Head
19
36% acc · 56%
2
29% acc · 14%
Body
4
100% acc · 12%
2
100% acc · 14%
Leg
11
92% acc · 32%

By position

8
26% acc · 57%
Distance
26
43% acc · 76%
4
50% acc · 29%
Clinch
8
89% acc · 24%
2
50% acc · 14%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Nick Catone rounds
2
even
1
Chris Camozzi rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns1
Control0:43
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:23Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns1
Control1:55
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:06Control
Round 3Chris Camozzi edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:00
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:19Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
14 / 43
Sig Strikes
34 / 69
25.3%
Sig Str %
49%
32 / 65
Total Strikes
55 / 94
2 / 9
TDs
0 / 0
25%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
2:38
Ctrl Time
0:48

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Chris Camozzi13 / 2917 / 350 / 00
1Nick Catone11 / 2614 / 291 / 40
2Chris Camozzi8 / 1822 / 340 / 00
2Nick Catone2 / 1116 / 291 / 20
3Chris Camozzi13 / 2216 / 250 / 00
3Nick Catone1 / 62 / 70 / 30

Nick Catone

StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights4

Chris Camozzi

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights19