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Women's Flyweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Nicco Montano won · U-DEC R5
Elo1492
Elo1418
Roxanne Modafferi

Nicco MontanovsRoxanne ModafferiUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: A New World Champion Finale · Friday, December 1, 2017Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Nicco Montano won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Roxanne Modafferi wins(62.5%)

Actual result: Nicco Montano wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Roxanne Modafferi at +175 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Roxanne Modafferi enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Nicco Montano has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Nicco Montano has 39pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Nicco Montano (53.5%).
  • Roxanne Modafferi has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Nicco Montano
Red Corner
VS
Roxanne Modafferi
Blue Corner
-210
(68%)
Vegas Odds
+175
(36%)
1492
Elo
1418
37
Age
43
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'5"
Height
5'7"
165.1 cm
Reach
175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nicco Montano
oldest →
L
vs Julianna Pena · Jul 19
latest
Roxanne ModafferiL3 streak
oldest →
L
vs Lauren Murphy · Jun 20
W
vs Andrea Lee · Sep 20
L
vs Viviane Araujo · Jan 21
L
vs Taila Santos · Sep 21
L
vs Casey O'Neill · Feb 22
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nicco MontanoMetricRoxanne Modafferi
5.60
Strikes / min
3.35
4.43
Strikes absorbed / min
5.70
64%
Strike defense
51%
2.25
TDs / 15 min
1.35
69%
Takedown defense
30%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.17Δ 3.52 — meaningful gap-2.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1484Strikes— vs 42.0Takedowns— vs 0.0Sub Atts— vs 0.00Form0.0 vs -1.0
Nicco MontanoRoxanne Modafferi

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Nicco Montano(2 fights)Roxanne Modafferi(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +73.9|Blue -73.9
Recent Form
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score
Red +50.0|Blue -50.0
Grappler Score
Red +50.0|Blue -50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nicco MontanoTargetRoxanne Modafferi

By target zone

138
35% acc · 74%
Head
112
30% acc · 85%
13
57% acc · 7%
Body
12
57% acc · 9%
35
97% acc · 19%
Leg
8
89% acc · 6%

By position

161
38% acc · 87%
Distance
123
31% acc · 93%
10
56% acc · 5%
Clinch
7
70% acc · 5%
15
94% acc · 8%
Ground
2
100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

5
Nicco Montano rounds
0
even
0
Roxanne Modafferi rounds
Round 1Nicco Montano edged it
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns1
Control1:29
17Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:51Control
Round 2Nicco Montano edged it
Sig. strikes46
Takedowns0
Control0:00
26Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:01Control
Round 3Nicco Montano edged it
Sig. strikes52
Takedowns0
Control0:16
37Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
Round 4Nicco Montano edged it
Sig. strikes39
Takedowns1
Control1:32
27Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:48Control
Round 5Nicco Montano edged it
Sig. strikes28
Takedowns1
Control2:54
25Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:23Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
186 / 456
Sig Strikes
132 / 403
40.2%
Sig Str %
33.8%
242 / 524
Total Strikes
154 / 433
3 / 6
TDs
2 / 9
50%
TD %
25%
1
Sub Att
1
1
Rev
0
6:11
Ctrl Time
3:05

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Roxanne Modafferi17 / 5133 / 721 / 20
1Nicco Montano21 / 6333 / 791 / 10
2Roxanne Modafferi26 / 10626 / 1061 / 20
2Nicco Montano46 / 10663 / 1270 / 11
3Roxanne Modafferi37 / 12038 / 1220 / 00
3Nicco Montano52 / 13453 / 1350 / 10
4Nicco Montano39 / 9254 / 1091 / 10
4Roxanne Modafferi27 / 7030 / 740 / 20
5Roxanne Modafferi25 / 5627 / 590 / 31
5Nicco Montano28 / 6139 / 741 / 20

Nicco Montano

StanceSouthpaw
Height65.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights2

Roxanne Modafferi

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights12