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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Louis Smolka won · U-DEC R3

Elo1361

Elo1425

Neil SeeryvsLouis SmolkaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor · Saturday, July 11, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Louis Smolka won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Neil Seery wins(54.6%)

Actual result: Louis Smolka wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Neil Seery at +115 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Neil Seery has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Louis Smolka has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Neil Seery

Red Corner

Louis Smolka

Blue Corner

+115

(47%)

Vegas Odds

-135

(57%)

1361

Elo

1425

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'9"

162.56 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Neil SeeryL2 streak

oldest →

vs Phil Harris · Jul 14

vs Chris Beal · Jan 15

SUBvs Jon Delos Reyes · Oct 15

vs Kyoji Horiguchi · May 16

SUBvs Alexandre Pantoja · Jul 17

latest

Louis SmolkaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Ryan MacDonald · Sep 19

SUBvs Casey Kenney · May 20

KOvs Jose Quinonez · Dec 20

KOvs Vince Morales · Dec 21

KOvs Davey Grant · May 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Neil SeeryMetricLouis Smolka

3.56

Strikes / min

4.67

3.79

Strikes absorbed / min

4.11

58%

Strike defense

53%

0.78

TDs / 15 min

1.69

53%

Takedown defense

32%

1.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.23evenly matched on net striking+0.56

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Neil SeeryLouis Smolka

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Neil Seery(7 fights)Louis Smolka(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -63.8|Blue +63.8

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -78.0|Blue +78.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Neil SeeryTargetLouis Smolka

By target zone

46% acc · 90%

Head

36% acc · 52%

100% acc · 5%

Body

92% acc · 48%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

By position

30% acc · 38%

Distance

35% acc · 39%

75% acc · 29%

Clinch

89% acc · 35%

88% acc · 33%

Ground

60% acc · 26%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Neil Seery rounds

even

Louis Smolka rounds

Round 1Neil Seery edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:13

Knockdowns1

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:42Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Louis Smolka edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:18

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:18Control

Round 3Louis Smolka edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:03

8Sig. strikes

5Takedowns

4:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 43

Sig Strikes

23 / 45

40.7%

Sig Str %

50.3%

92 / 121

Total Strikes

36 / 58

0 / 0

TDs

6 / 10

—

TD %

52%

Sub Att

Rev

0:34

Ctrl Time

12:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Louis Smolka	11 / 22	13 / 24	0 / 0	2
1	Neil Seery	13 / 19	20 / 26	0 / 0	1
2	Louis Smolka	4 / 10	13 / 19	1 / 3	1
2	Neil Seery	1 / 6	39 / 49	0 / 0	1
3	Louis Smolka	8 / 13	10 / 15	5 / 7	2
3	Neil Seery	7 / 18	33 / 46	0 / 0	1

Neil Seery

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights7

Louis Smolka

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights17