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Flyweight
3 Rounds
Neil Seery won · U-DEC R3
Elo1361
Neil Seery
Elo1357
Chris Beal

Neil SeeryvsChris BealUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson · Saturday, January 24, 2015Stockholm, Sweden

Official fight result

Neil Seery won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Chris Beal wins(56.2%)

Actual result: Neil Seery wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Beal at -215 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Chris Beal has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Chris Beal has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Neil Seery
Red Corner
VS
Chris Beal
Blue Corner
+178
(36%)
Vegas Odds
-215
(68%)
1361
Elo
1357
46
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'4"
Height
5'7"
162.56 cm
Reach
175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Neil SeeryL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Phil Harris · Jul 14
L
vs Louis Smolka · Jul 15
W
SUBvs Jon Delos Reyes · Oct 15
L
vs Kyoji Horiguchi · May 16
L
SUBvs Alexandre Pantoja · Jul 17
latest
Chris BealL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Patrick Williams · Apr 14
W
vs Tateki Matsuda · Sep 14
L
vs Chris Kelades · Aug 15
L
SUBvs Joe Soto · Jun 16
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Neil SeeryMetricChris Beal
3.56
Strikes / min
3.45
3.79
Strikes absorbed / min
3.18
58%
Strike defense
61%
0.78
TDs / 15 min
1.60
53%
Takedown defense
78%
1.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.23evenly matched on net striking+0.27

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1531Strikes53.5 vs 32.0Takedowns1.0 vs 1.5Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.50Form0.2 vs 1.0
Neil SeeryChris Beal

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801488149515031510← oldermost recent →
Neil Seery(7 fights)Chris Beal(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +3.9|Blue -3.9
Recent Form
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Striker Score
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +48.0|Blue -48.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Neil SeeryTargetChris Beal

By target zone

50
36% acc · 89%
Head
26
22% acc · 67%
1
20% acc · 2%
Body
9
64% acc · 23%
5
50% acc · 9%
Leg
4
100% acc · 10%

By position

34
27% acc · 61%
Distance
22
22% acc · 56%
8
73% acc · 14%
Clinch
4
44% acc · 10%
14
88% acc · 25%
Ground
13
48% acc · 33%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Neil Seery rounds
0
even
1
Chris Beal rounds
Round 1Chris Beal edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:00
16Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:52Control
Round 2Neil Seery edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns0
Control0:19
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
3:20Control
Round 3Neil Seery edged it
Sig. strikes27
Takedowns1
Control0:28
14Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:32Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
56 / 152
Sig Strikes
39 / 135
40%
Sig Str %
28.3%
106 / 204
Total Strikes
61 / 160
1 / 3
TDs
2 / 4
25%
TD %
50%
4
Sub Att
0
2
Rev
1
0:47
Ctrl Time
4:44

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Chris Beal16 / 4623 / 531 / 20
1Neil Seery11 / 5514 / 580 / 00
2Chris Beal9 / 3420 / 450 / 00
2Neil Seery18 / 3043 / 550 / 14
3Chris Beal14 / 5518 / 621 / 20
3Neil Seery27 / 6749 / 911 / 20

Neil Seery

StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach64.0"
Fights7

Chris Beal

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights5