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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Yaroslav Amosov won · SUB R1

Elo1505

Elo1545

Neil MagnyvsYaroslav AmosovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · Saturday, December 13, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Yaroslav Amosov won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:14

Style matchupNeil Magny: WrestlervsYaroslav Amosov: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Yaroslav Amosov wins(77.2%)

Actual result: Yaroslav Amosov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Yaroslav Amosov at -550 American odds

+$18 profit

$118 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Yaroslav Amosov threatens submissions; Neil Magny has lost 46% of fights by sub.
Neil Magny has 55pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Neil Magny has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Neil Magny

Red Corner

Yaroslav Amosov

Blue Corner

+410

(20%)

Vegas Odds

-550

(85%)

1505

Elo

1545

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'0"

203.2 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Neil MagnyW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mike Malott · Jan 24

KOvs Michael Morales · Aug 24

KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 24

KOvs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Aug 25

SUBvs Jake Matthews · Sep 25

latest

Yaroslav Amosov

oldest →

SUBvs Joel Alvarez · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Neil MagnyMetricYaroslav Amosov

3.40

Strikes / min

2.65

2.44

Strikes absorbed / min

1.38

51%

Strike defense

60%

2.17

TDs / 15 min

11.11

55%

Takedown defense

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

3.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.96evenly matched on net striking+1.27

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Neil MagnyYaroslav Amosov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Neil Magny(10 fights)Yaroslav Amosov(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -40.0|Blue +40.0

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -48.3|Blue +48.3

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Neil MagnyTargetYaroslav Amosov

By target zone

25% acc · 40%

Head

25% acc · 33%

100% acc · 40%

Body

100% acc · 20%

Leg

86% acc · 67%

By position

45% acc · 100%

Distance

47% acc · 89%

Clinch

Ground

50% acc · 11%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Neil Magny rounds

even

Yaroslav Amosov rounds

Round 1Yaroslav Amosov edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:56Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

5 / 11

Sig Strikes

9 / 19

45%

Sig Str %

47%

15 / 24

Total Strikes

13 / 27

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 2

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:56

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Yaroslav Amosov	9 / 19	13 / 27	1 / 2	1
1	Neil Magny	5 / 11	15 / 24	0 / 0	0

Neil Magny

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights37

Yaroslav Amosov

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights2