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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Neil Magny won · U-DEC R3

Elo1505

Elo1492

Neil MagnyvsTim MeansUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva · Saturday, May 10, 2014Cincinnati, Ohio, USA

Official fight result

Neil Magny won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupNeil Magny: WrestlervsTim Means: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Tim Means wins(53.0%)

Actual result: Neil Magny wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tim Means at -305 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Neil Magny has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Neil Magny

Red Corner

Tim Means

Blue Corner

+275

(27%)

Vegas Odds

-305

(75%)

1505

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'2"

203.2 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Neil Magny

oldest →

KOvs Michael Morales · Aug 24

KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 24

KOvs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Aug 25

SUBvs Jake Matthews · Sep 25

SUBvs Yaroslav Amosov · Dec 25

latest

Tim MeansL2 streak

oldest →

vs Max Griffin · Oct 22

SUBvs Alex Morono · May 23

KOvs Andre Fialho · Sep 23

KOvs Uros Medic · Apr 24

SUBvs Court McGee · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Neil MagnyMetricTim Means

3.40

Strikes / min

5.04

2.44

Strikes absorbed / min

3.65

51%

Strike defense

60%

2.17

TDs / 15 min

1.14

55%

Takedown defense

64%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.96evenly matched on net striking+1.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Neil MagnyTim Means

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Neil Magny(10 fights)Tim Means(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +13.7|Blue -13.7

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -189.0|Blue +189.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Neil MagnyTargetTim Means

By target zone

27% acc · 48%

Head

39% acc · 60%

61% acc · 38%

Body

38% acc · 17%

57% acc · 14%

Leg

100% acc · 23%

By position

33% acc · 72%

Distance

33% acc · 50%

64% acc · 24%

Clinch

80% acc · 27%

50% acc · 3%

Ground

70% acc · 23%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Neil Magny rounds

even

Tim Means rounds

Round 1Neil Magny edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control1:04

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control1:01

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:34Control

Round 3Neil Magny edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns2

Control3:15

5Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:28Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 77

Sig Strikes

30 / 66

38%

Sig Str %

46.3%

52 / 105

Total Strikes

53 / 89

4 / 9

TDs

3 / 4

46.7%

TD %

66.7%

Sub Att

Rev

5:20

Ctrl Time

1:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tim Means	13 / 20	16 / 23	0 / 1	0
1	Neil Magny	12 / 29	12 / 29	1 / 2	0
2	Tim Means	12 / 33	19 / 40	1 / 1	0
2	Neil Magny	10 / 31	15 / 38	1 / 2	0
3	Tim Means	5 / 13	18 / 26	2 / 2	1
3	Neil Magny	7 / 17	25 / 38	2 / 5	0

Neil Magny

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights37

Tim Means

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights29