← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

3 Rounds

Shavkat Rakhmonov won · SUB R2

Elo1505

Elo1522

Neil MagnyvsShavkat RakhmonovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · Saturday, June 25, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Shavkat Rakhmonov won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:58

Style matchupNeil Magny: WrestlervsShavkat Rakhmonov: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Shavkat Rakhmonov wins(73.1%)

Actual result: Shavkat Rakhmonov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Shavkat Rakhmonov at -435 American odds

+$23 profit

$123 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Shavkat Rakhmonov enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Shavkat Rakhmonov threatens submissions; Neil Magny has lost 46% of fights by sub.
Shavkat Rakhmonov has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Neil Magny

Red Corner

Shavkat Rakhmonov

Blue Corner

+350

(22%)

Vegas Odds

-435

(81%)

1505

Elo

1522

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'1"

203.2 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Neil Magny

oldest →

KOvs Michael Morales · Aug 24

KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 24

KOvs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Aug 25

SUBvs Jake Matthews · Sep 25

SUBvs Yaroslav Amosov · Dec 25

latest

Shavkat RakhmonovW5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Michel Prazeres · Jun 21

KOvs Carlston Harris · Feb 22

SUBvs Geoff Neal · Mar 23

SUBvs Stephen Thompson · Dec 23

vs Ian Machado Garry · Dec 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Neil MagnyMetricShavkat Rakhmonov

3.40

Strikes / min

3.25

2.44

Strikes absorbed / min

2.17

51%

Strike defense

51%

2.17

TDs / 15 min

1.40

55%

Takedown defense

85%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.96evenly matched on net striking+1.08

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Neil MagnyShavkat Rakhmonov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Neil Magny(10 fights)Shavkat Rakhmonov(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -16.7|Blue +16.7

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.8|Blue -1.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Neil MagnyTargetShavkat Rakhmonov

By target zone

38% acc · 55%

Head

50% acc · 89%

100% acc · 18%

Body

100% acc · 11%

75% acc · 27%

Leg

By position

50% acc · 73%

Distance

50% acc · 26%

Clinch

50% acc · 27%

Ground

54% acc · 74%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Neil Magny rounds

even

Shavkat Rakhmonov rounds

Round 1Shavkat Rakhmonov edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:43Control

Round 2Shavkat Rakhmonov edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:07

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:23Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 22

Sig Strikes

19 / 36

51.5%

Sig Str %

51.5%

21 / 35

Total Strikes

56 / 79

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 2

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:07

Ctrl Time

9:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Shavkat Rakhmonov	12 / 20	27 / 38	1 / 1	0
1	Neil Magny	7 / 10	10 / 16	0 / 0	0
2	Shavkat Rakhmonov	7 / 16	29 / 41	1 / 1	1
2	Neil Magny	4 / 12	11 / 19	0 / 0	0

Neil Magny

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights37

Shavkat Rakhmonov

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights7