← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

3 Rounds

Seth Baczynski won · U-DEC R3

Elo1505

Elo1354

Neil MagnyvsSeth BaczynskiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Fight for the Troops 3 · Wednesday, November 6, 2013Fort Campbell, Kentucky, USA

Official fight result

Seth Baczynski won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Neil Magny wins(62.6%)

Actual result: Seth Baczynski wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Neil Magny at -145 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Seth Baczynski enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Seth Baczynski threatens submissions; Neil Magny has lost 46% of fights by sub.
Neil Magny has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Neil Magny

Red Corner

Seth Baczynski

Blue Corner

-145

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+135

(43%)

1505

Elo

1354

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'3"

203.2 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Neil Magny

oldest →

KOvs Michael Morales · Aug 24

KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 24

KOvs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Aug 25

SUBvs Jake Matthews · Sep 25

SUBvs Yaroslav Amosov · Dec 25

latest

Seth BaczynskiL5 streak

oldest →

vs Mike Pierce · Dec 12

KOvs Brian Melancon · Jul 13

vs Thiago Alves · Apr 14

KOvs Alan Jouban · Aug 14

KOvs Leon Edwards · Apr 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Neil MagnyMetricSeth Baczynski

3.40

Strikes / min

3.08

2.44

Strikes absorbed / min

3.14

51%

Strike defense

51%

2.17

TDs / 15 min

0.89

55%

Takedown defense

48%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.96Δ 1.02 — meaningful gap-0.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Neil MagnySeth Baczynski

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Neil Magny(10 fights)Seth Baczynski(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +150.9|Blue -150.9

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -28.0|Blue +28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Neil MagnyTargetSeth Baczynski

By target zone

27% acc · 35%

Head

22% acc · 36%

100% acc · 35%

Body

74% acc · 50%

69% acc · 29%

Leg

80% acc · 14%

By position

26% acc · 26%

Distance

32% acc · 43%

74% acc · 65%

Clinch

57% acc · 29%

43% acc · 10%

Ground

44% acc · 29%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Neil Magny rounds

even

Seth Baczynski rounds

Round 1Seth Baczynski edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:50

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:42Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:48

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:30Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns2

Control0:43

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:13Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

31 / 65

Sig Strikes

28 / 70

48%

Sig Str %

38.7%

104 / 143

Total Strikes

46 / 91

2 / 3

TDs

3 / 11

50%

TD %

47%

Sub Att

Rev

2:21

Ctrl Time

8:25

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Seth Baczynski	14 / 31	18 / 36	1 / 1
1	Neil Magny	9 / 19	28 / 39	0 / 0
2	Seth Baczynski	6 / 18	12 / 24	1 / 4
2	Neil Magny	11 / 19	35 / 46	0 / 1
3	Seth Baczynski	8 / 21	16 / 31	1 / 6
3	Neil Magny	11 / 27	41 / 58	2 / 2

Neil Magny

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights37

Seth Baczynski

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11