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Welterweight

5 Rounds

Santiago Ponzinibbio won · KO/TKO R4

Elo1505

Elo1477

Neil MagnyvsSantiago PonzinibbioUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponzinibbio · Saturday, November 17, 2018Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina

Official fight result

Santiago Ponzinibbio won

KO/TKO · Round 4 · 2:36

Style matchupNeil Magny: WrestlervsSantiago Ponzinibbio: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Neil Magny wins(65.3%)

Actual result: Santiago Ponzinibbio wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Neil Magny at +175 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Santiago Ponzinibbio has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Santiago Ponzinibbio has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Neil Magny has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Neil Magny

Red Corner

Santiago Ponzinibbio

Blue Corner

+175

(36%)

Vegas Odds

-210

(68%)

1505

Elo

1477

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'0"

203.2 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Neil Magny

oldest →

KOvs Michael Morales · Aug 24

KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 24

KOvs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Aug 25

SUBvs Jake Matthews · Sep 25

SUBvs Yaroslav Amosov · Dec 25

latest

Santiago PonzinibbioL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Kevin Holland · Apr 23

vs Muslim Salikhov · Jul 24

KOvs Carlston Harris · Jan 25

KOvs Daniel Rodriguez · May 25

KOvs Sam Patterson · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Neil MagnyMetricSantiago Ponzinibbio

3.40

Strikes / min

4.78

2.44

Strikes absorbed / min

4.68

51%

Strike defense

61%

2.17

TDs / 15 min

0.60

55%

Takedown defense

71%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.96evenly matched on net striking+0.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Neil MagnySantiago Ponzinibbio

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Neil Magny(10 fights)Santiago Ponzinibbio(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +28.4|Blue -28.4

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -162.0|Blue +162.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Neil MagnyTargetSantiago Ponzinibbio

By target zone

23% acc · 71%

Head

35% acc · 65%

64% acc · 13%

Body

70% acc · 9%

67% acc · 17%

Leg

91% acc · 27%

By position

29% acc · 97%

Distance

43% acc · 94%

0% acc

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

50% acc · 3%

Ground

100% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Neil Magny rounds

even

Santiago Ponzinibbio rounds

Round 1Santiago Ponzinibbio edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:28Control

Round 3Neil Magny edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Santiago Ponzinibbio edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:13Control

2Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

72 / 251

Sig Strikes

79 / 177

29.3%

Sig Str %

44.8%

72 / 251

Total Strikes

81 / 179

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:41

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Santiago Ponzinibbio	23 / 46	23 / 46	0 / 0
1	Neil Magny	12 / 60	12 / 60	0 / 0
2	Neil Magny	21 / 71	21 / 71	0 / 1
2	Santiago Ponzinibbio	22 / 40	24 / 42	0 / 0
3	Santiago Ponzinibbio	23 / 62	23 / 62	0 / 0
3	Neil Magny	27 / 89	27 / 89	0 / 0
4	Santiago Ponzinibbio	11 / 29	11 / 29	0 / 0
4	Neil Magny	12 / 31	12 / 31	0 / 1

Neil Magny

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights37

Santiago Ponzinibbio

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights21