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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Neil Magny won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1505

Elo1354

Neil MagnyvsRodrigo de LimaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Te Huna vs Marquardt · Saturday, June 28, 2014Auckland, New Zealand

Official fight result

Neil Magny won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:32

Style matchupNeil Magny: WrestlervsRodrigo de Lima: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Neil Magny wins(73.6%)

Actual result: Neil Magny wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Neil Magny at -290 American odds

+$34 profit

$134 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Neil Magny has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Neil Magny has 55pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Neil Magny has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Neil Magny

Red Corner

Rodrigo de Lima

Blue Corner

-290

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+260

(28%)

1505

Elo

1354

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

5'7"

203.2 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Neil Magny

oldest →

KOvs Michael Morales · Aug 24

KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 24

KOvs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Aug 25

SUBvs Jake Matthews · Sep 25

SUBvs Yaroslav Amosov · Dec 25

latest

Rodrigo de Lima

oldest →

vs Efrain Escudero · Feb 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Neil MagnyMetricRodrigo de Lima

3.40

Strikes / min

1.29

2.44

Strikes absorbed / min

5.50

51%

Strike defense

32%

2.17

TDs / 15 min

2.66

55%

Takedown defense

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.96Δ 5.17 — meaningful gap-4.21

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Neil MagnyRodrigo de Lima

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Neil Magny(10 fights)Rodrigo de Lima(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +151.1|Blue -151.1

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -47.7|Blue +47.7

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Neil MagnyTargetRodrigo de Lima

By target zone

54% acc · 97%

Head

0% acc

100% acc · 3%

Body

50% acc · 20%

Leg

100% acc · 80%

By position

55% acc · 100%

Distance

25% acc · 60%

Clinch

Ground

100% acc · 40%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Neil Magny rounds

even

Rodrigo de Lima rounds

Round 1Rodrigo de Lima edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns2

Control0:38

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:42Control

Round 2Neil Magny edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:01

Knockdowns1

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

30 / 55

Sig Strikes

5 / 14

36.5%

Sig Str %

41.5%

31 / 57

Total Strikes

30 / 41

2 / 2

TDs

1 / 3

100%

TD %

33%

Sub Att

Rev

0:39

Ctrl Time

3:42

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Rodrigo de Lima	5 / 6	30 / 33	1 / 3	2
1	Neil Magny	1 / 8	1 / 8	2 / 2	0
2	Rodrigo de Lima	0 / 8	0 / 8	0 / 0	0
2	Neil Magny	29 / 47	30 / 49	0 / 0	0

Neil Magny

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights37

Rodrigo de Lima

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach—

Fights2