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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Rafael Dos Anjos won · SUB R1

Elo1505

Elo1491

Neil MagnyvsRafael Dos AnjosUFC Prediction Result

UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2 · Saturday, September 9, 2017Edmonton, Alberta, Canada

Official fight result

Rafael Dos Anjos won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:43

Model Prediction: Neil Magny wins(57.4%)

Actual result: Rafael Dos Anjos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Neil Magny at +165 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rafael Dos Anjos enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Rafael Dos Anjos (53.5%).
Neil Magny has a 25cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Neil Magny

Red Corner

Rafael Dos Anjos

Blue Corner

+165

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-190

(66%)

1505

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'3"

Height

5'8"

203.2 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Neil Magny

oldest →

KOvs Michael Morales · Aug 24

KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 24

KOvs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Aug 25

SUBvs Jake Matthews · Sep 25

SUBvs Yaroslav Amosov · Dec 25

latest

Rafael Dos AnjosL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Jul 22

SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Dec 22

vs Vicente Luque · Aug 23

vs Mateusz Gamrot · Mar 24

KOvs Geoff Neal · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Neil MagnyMetricRafael Dos Anjos

3.40

Strikes / min

3.48

2.44

Strikes absorbed / min

3.23

51%

Strike defense

60%

2.17

TDs / 15 min

1.95

55%

Takedown defense

54%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.96evenly matched on net striking+0.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Neil MagnyRafael Dos Anjos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Neil Magny(10 fights)Rafael Dos Anjos(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +14.8|Blue -14.8

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +169.0|Blue -169.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Neil MagnyTargetRafael Dos Anjos

By target zone

0% acc

Head

79% acc · 85%

100% acc · 100%

Body

100% acc · 8%

0% acc

Leg

100% acc · 8%

By position

20% acc · 100%

Distance

100% acc · 8%

Clinch

Ground

80% acc · 92%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Neil Magny rounds

even

Rafael Dos Anjos rounds

Round 1Rafael Dos Anjos edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:19Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1 / 5

Sig Strikes

13 / 16

20%

Sig Str %

81%

5 / 9

Total Strikes

17 / 21

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

3:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Rafael Dos Anjos	13 / 16	17 / 21	0 / 0	1
1	Neil Magny	1 / 5	5 / 9	0 / 0	0

Neil Magny

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights37

Rafael Dos Anjos

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights32