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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Neil Magny won · S-DEC R3

Elo1505

Elo1484

Neil MagnyvsPhil RoweUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria · Saturday, June 24, 2023Jacksonville, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Neil Magny won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupNeil Magny: WrestlervsPhil Rowe: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Neil Magny wins(53.2%)

Actual result: Neil Magny wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Neil Magny at -172 American odds

+$58 profit

$158 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Neil Magny

Red Corner

Phil Rowe

Blue Corner

-172

(63%)

Vegas Odds

+144

(41%)

1505

Elo

1484

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'3"

203.2 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Neil Magny

oldest →

KOvs Michael Morales · Aug 24

KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 24

KOvs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Aug 25

SUBvs Jake Matthews · Sep 25

SUBvs Yaroslav Amosov · Dec 25

latest

Phil RoweL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Niko Price · Dec 22

vs Jake Matthews · Jun 24

KOvs Ange Loosa · Jun 25

vs Seokhyeon Ko · Nov 25

vs Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Neil MagnyMetricPhil Rowe

3.40

Strikes / min

3.51

2.44

Strikes absorbed / min

4.15

51%

Strike defense

50%

2.17

TDs / 15 min

0.46

55%

Takedown defense

53%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.96Δ 1.60 — meaningful gap-0.64

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Neil MagnyPhil Rowe

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Neil Magny(10 fights)Phil Rowe(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +21.6|Blue -21.6

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Neil MagnyTargetPhil Rowe

By target zone

40% acc · 79%

Head

40% acc · 50%

71% acc · 17%

Body

50% acc · 9%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

93% acc · 41%

By position

37% acc · 59%

Distance

55% acc · 94%

63% acc · 41%

Clinch

33% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Neil Magny rounds

even

Phil Rowe rounds

Round 1Phil Rowe edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control1:59

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:41Control

Round 2Phil Rowe edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control1:56

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:03Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:36

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:54Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 65

Sig Strikes

34 / 64

42%

Sig Str %

52.7%

109 / 159

Total Strikes

51 / 86

0 / 3

TDs

1 / 2

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

4:31

Ctrl Time

4:38

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Phil Rowe	11 / 19	16 / 25	0 / 0
1	Neil Magny	5 / 15	37 / 52	0 / 1
2	Phil Rowe	6 / 12	10 / 17	1 / 2
2	Neil Magny	7 / 16	29 / 42	0 / 0
3	Phil Rowe	17 / 33	25 / 44	0 / 0
3	Neil Magny	17 / 34	43 / 65	0 / 2

Neil Magny

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights37

Phil Rowe

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights8