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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Neil Magny won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1505

Elo1552

Neil MagnyvsMike MalottUFC Prediction Result

UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · Saturday, January 20, 2024Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Neil Magny won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 4:45

Style matchupNeil Magny: WrestlervsMike Malott: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Mike Malott wins(51.8%)

Actual result: Neil Magny wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mike Malott at -380 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mike Malott enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Neil Magny has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Neil Magny

Red Corner

Mike Malott

Blue Corner

+300

(25%)

Vegas Odds

-380

(79%)

1505

Elo

1552

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'1"

203.2 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Neil Magny

oldest →

KOvs Michael Morales · Aug 24

KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 24

KOvs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Aug 25

SUBvs Jake Matthews · Sep 25

SUBvs Yaroslav Amosov · Dec 25

latest

Mike MalottW5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Adam Fugitt · Jun 23

vs Trevin Giles · Nov 24

KOvs Charles Radtke · May 25

vs Kevin Holland · Oct 25

KOvs Gilbert Burns · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Neil MagnyMetricMike Malott

3.40

Strikes / min

4.02

2.44

Strikes absorbed / min

3.09

51%

Strike defense

56%

2.17

TDs / 15 min

1.63

55%

Takedown defense

57%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.96evenly matched on net striking+0.93

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Neil MagnyMike Malott

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Neil Magny(10 fights)Mike Malott(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -46.3|Blue +46.3

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -70.0|Blue +70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Neil MagnyTargetMike Malott

By target zone

55% acc · 91%

Head

48% acc · 42%

100% acc · 5%

Body

100% acc · 9%

50% acc · 4%

Leg

96% acc · 49%

By position

30% acc · 23%

Distance

61% acc · 67%

0% acc

Clinch

79% acc · 77%

Ground

83% acc · 33%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Neil Magny rounds

even

Mike Malott rounds

Round 1Mike Malott edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:03

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:18Control

Round 2Mike Malott edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:08Control

Round 3Neil Magny edged it

Sig. strikes46

Takedowns1

Control1:44

4Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:36Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

57 / 102

Sig Strikes

45 / 67

44.7%

Sig Str %

66.7%

110 / 159

Total Strikes

100 / 128

1 / 2

TDs

4 / 6

50%

TD %

75%

Sub Att

Rev

1:47

Ctrl Time

6:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Mike Malott	20 / 31	20 / 31	0 / 0
1	Neil Magny	5 / 25	12 / 32	0 / 0
2	Mike Malott	21 / 30	67 / 79	2 / 2
2	Neil Magny	6 / 15	18 / 29	0 / 1
3	Mike Malott	4 / 6	13 / 18	2 / 4
3	Neil Magny	46 / 62	80 / 98	1 / 1

Neil Magny

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights37

Mike Malott

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7