← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

3 Rounds

Neil Magny won · S-DEC R3

Elo1505

Elo1470

Neil MagnyvsMax GriffinUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · Saturday, March 26, 2022Columbus, Ohio, USA

Official fight result

Neil Magny won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupNeil Magny: WrestlervsMax Griffin: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Neil Magny wins(56.6%)

Actual result: Neil Magny wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Neil Magny at -280 American odds

+$36 profit

$136 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Max Griffin enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Neil Magny has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Neil Magny

Red Corner

Max Griffin

Blue Corner

-280

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+225

(31%)

1505

Elo

1470

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

5'11"

203.2 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Neil Magny

oldest →

KOvs Michael Morales · Aug 24

KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 24

KOvs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Aug 25

SUBvs Jake Matthews · Sep 25

SUBvs Yaroslav Amosov · Dec 25

latest

Max GriffinL3 streak

oldest →

vs Michael Morales · Jul 23

vs Jeremiah Wells · Feb 24

SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Dec 24

vs Chris Curtis · Jul 25

DECvs Victor Valenzuela · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Neil MagnyMetricMax Griffin

3.40

Strikes / min

3.70

2.44

Strikes absorbed / min

3.69

51%

Strike defense

58%

2.17

TDs / 15 min

1.44

55%

Takedown defense

69%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.96evenly matched on net striking+0.01

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Neil MagnyMax Griffin

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Neil Magny(10 fights)Max Griffin(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +63.0|Blue -63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Neil MagnyTargetMax Griffin

By target zone

33% acc · 78%

Head

39% acc · 51%

77% acc · 19%

Body

85% acc · 16%

40% acc · 4%

Leg

96% acc · 33%

By position

32% acc · 78%

Distance

56% acc · 94%

86% acc · 22%

Clinch

33% acc · 3%

Ground

50% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Neil Magny rounds

even

Max Griffin rounds

Round 1Max Griffin edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:13Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Max Griffin edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:32

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Neil Magny edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control4:01

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:26Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

54 / 144

Sig Strikes

67 / 123

42%

Sig Str %

51.7%

104 / 204

Total Strikes

75 / 132

1 / 9

TDs

0 / 2

10%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

4:33

Ctrl Time

0:39

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Max Griffin	30 / 48	31 / 49	0 / 0
1	Neil Magny	16 / 53	17 / 54	0 / 0
2	Max Griffin	30 / 59	30 / 59	0 / 0
2	Neil Magny	26 / 71	28 / 73	0 / 4
3	Max Griffin	7 / 16	14 / 24	0 / 2
3	Neil Magny	12 / 20	59 / 77	1 / 5

Neil Magny

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights37

Max Griffin

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights19