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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Lorenz Larkin won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1505

Elo1491

Neil MagnyvsLorenz LarkinUFC Prediction Result

UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · Saturday, August 20, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Lorenz Larkin won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:08

Style matchupNeil Magny: WrestlervsLorenz Larkin: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Neil Magny wins(80.4%)

Actual result: Lorenz Larkin wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Neil Magny at -140 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Lorenz Larkin has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Lorenz Larkin has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Neil Magny has a 20cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Neil Magny

Red Corner

Lorenz Larkin

Blue Corner

-140

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1505

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

5'11"

203.2 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Neil Magny

oldest →

KOvs Michael Morales · Aug 24

KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 24

KOvs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Aug 25

SUBvs Jake Matthews · Sep 25

SUBvs Yaroslav Amosov · Dec 25

latest

Lorenz Larkin

oldest →

vs Derek Brunson · Aug 14

KOvs John Howard · Jan 15

KOvs Santiago Ponzinibbio · Jun 15

vs Albert Tumenov · Jan 16

vs Jorge Masvidal · May 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Neil MagnyMetricLorenz Larkin

3.40

Strikes / min

3.53

2.44

Strikes absorbed / min

2.74

51%

Strike defense

63%

2.17

TDs / 15 min

0.27

55%

Takedown defense

79%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.96evenly matched on net striking+0.79

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Neil MagnyLorenz Larkin

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Neil Magny(10 fights)Lorenz Larkin(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +14.8|Blue -14.8

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +71.0|Blue -71.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Neil MagnyTargetLorenz Larkin

By target zone

25% acc · 63%

Head

52% acc · 41%

100% acc · 13%

Body

86% acc · 19%

100% acc · 25%

Leg

81% acc · 41%

By position

29% acc · 75%

Distance

58% acc · 69%

100% acc · 25%

Clinch

100% acc · 31%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Neil Magny rounds

even

Lorenz Larkin rounds

Round 1Lorenz Larkin edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns0

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:58Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 23

Sig Strikes

32 / 48

34%

Sig Str %

66%

13 / 29

Total Strikes

34 / 50

0 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

0:58

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Lorenz Larkin	32 / 48	34 / 50	0 / 0	0
1	Neil Magny	8 / 23	13 / 29	0 / 5	0

Neil Magny

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights37

Lorenz Larkin

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights10