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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Neil Magny won · SUB R3

Elo1505

Elo1361

Neil MagnyvsKiichi KunimotoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Thatch · Saturday, February 14, 2015Broomfield, Colorado, USA

Official fight result

Neil Magny won

SUB · Round 3 · 1:22

Model Prediction: Neil Magny wins(63.4%)

Actual result: Neil Magny wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Neil Magny at -815 American odds

+$12 profit

$112 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Neil Magny has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Neil Magny has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Neil Magny has a 23cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Neil Magny

Red Corner

Kiichi Kunimoto

Blue Corner

-815

(89%)

Vegas Odds

+645

(13%)

1505

Elo

1361

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

5'10"

203.2 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Neil Magny

oldest →

KOvs Michael Morales · Aug 24

KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 24

KOvs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Aug 25

SUBvs Jake Matthews · Sep 25

SUBvs Yaroslav Amosov · Dec 25

latest

Kiichi Kunimoto

oldest →

vs Luiz Dutra · Jan 14

SUBvs Daniel Sarafian · Jun 14

vs Richard Walsh · Sep 14

vs Zak Ottow · Jun 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Neil MagnyMetricKiichi Kunimoto

3.40

Strikes / min

1.87

2.44

Strikes absorbed / min

3.92

51%

Strike defense

41%

2.17

TDs / 15 min

1.59

55%

Takedown defense

28%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.96Δ 3.01 — meaningful gap-2.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Neil MagnyKiichi Kunimoto

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Neil Magny(10 fights)Kiichi Kunimoto(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +144.8|Blue -144.8

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +1.8|Blue -1.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -35.0|Blue +35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Neil MagnyTargetKiichi Kunimoto

By target zone

64% acc · 68%

Head

23% acc · 50%

79% acc · 29%

Body

50% acc · 10%

67% acc · 3%

Leg

100% acc · 40%

By position

55% acc · 39%

Distance

39% acc · 90%

75% acc · 36%

Clinch

20% acc · 10%

90% acc · 25%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Neil Magny rounds

even

Kiichi Kunimoto rounds

Round 1Neil Magny edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control1:59

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:16Control

Round 2Neil Magny edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns2

Control2:18

2Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:57Control

Round 3Neil Magny edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control1:09

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

76 / 112

Sig Strikes

10 / 28

69%

Sig Str %

42%

142 / 181

Total Strikes

20 / 40

3 / 4

TDs

1 / 4

66.7%

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

5:26

Ctrl Time

3:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kiichi Kunimoto	6 / 14	12 / 20	0 / 2	0
1	Neil Magny	24 / 45	43 / 64	0 / 1	0
2	Kiichi Kunimoto	2 / 11	6 / 17	1 / 2	0
2	Neil Magny	39 / 50	67 / 81	2 / 2	0
3	Kiichi Kunimoto	2 / 3	2 / 3	0 / 0	0
3	Neil Magny	13 / 17	32 / 36	1 / 1	1

Neil Magny

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights37

Kiichi Kunimoto

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights5