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Welterweight

5 Rounds

Neil Magny won · S-DEC R5

Elo1505

Elo1492

Neil MagnyvsKelvin GastelumUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gastelum · Saturday, November 21, 2015Monterrey, Nuevo Leon, Mexico

Official fight result

Neil Magny won

S-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupNeil Magny: WrestlervsKelvin Gastelum: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Neil Magny wins(64.1%)

Actual result: Neil Magny wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Neil Magny at +270 American odds

+$270 profit

$370 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Kelvin Gastelum (53.5%).
Neil Magny has a 23cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Neil Magny

Red Corner

Kelvin Gastelum

Blue Corner

+270

(27%)

Vegas Odds

-330

(77%)

1505

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'3"

Height

5'9"

203.2 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Neil Magny

oldest →

KOvs Michael Morales · Aug 24

KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 24

KOvs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Aug 25

SUBvs Jake Matthews · Sep 25

SUBvs Yaroslav Amosov · Dec 25

latest

Kelvin Gastelum

oldest →

SUBvs Sean Brady · Dec 23

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jun 24

vs Joe Pyfer · Jun 25

vs Dustin Stoltzfus · Sep 25

SUBvs Vicente Luque · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Neil MagnyMetricKelvin Gastelum

3.40

Strikes / min

3.65

2.44

Strikes absorbed / min

3.52

51%

Strike defense

57%

2.17

TDs / 15 min

1.04

55%

Takedown defense

60%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.96evenly matched on net striking+0.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Neil MagnyKelvin Gastelum

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Neil Magny(10 fights)Kelvin Gastelum(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +13.8|Blue -13.8

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -71.0|Blue +71.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Neil MagnyTargetKelvin Gastelum

By target zone

34% acc · 76%

Head

31% acc · 63%

67% acc · 19%

Body

86% acc · 11%

33% acc · 6%

Leg

88% acc · 26%

By position

32% acc · 72%

Distance

39% acc · 80%

61% acc · 20%

Clinch

36% acc · 7%

80% acc · 7%

Ground

50% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Neil Magny rounds

even

Kelvin Gastelum rounds

Round 1Neil Magny edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns2

Control1:55

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:33Control

Round 2Neil Magny edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns2

Control1:53

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:42Control

Round 3Neil Magny edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control1:04

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:56Control

Round 4Kelvin Gastelum edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:19

Knockdowns0

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:41Control

2Knockdowns

Round 5Kelvin Gastelum edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control0:26

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:21Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

54 / 145

Sig Strikes

54 / 134

35.8%

Sig Str %

46%

81 / 174

Total Strikes

86 / 167

6 / 14

TDs

2 / 3

38%

TD %

66.7%

Sub Att

Rev

5:37

Ctrl Time

7:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Kelvin Gastelum	10 / 12	10 / 12	0 / 1
1	Neil Magny	7 / 26	17 / 37	2 / 3
2	Kelvin Gastelum	10 / 28	13 / 31	0 / 0
2	Neil Magny	16 / 37	22 / 44	2 / 3
3	Kelvin Gastelum	11 / 25	12 / 26	1 / 1
3	Neil Magny	15 / 35	19 / 39	1 / 3
4	Neil Magny	6 / 24	6 / 24	0 / 1
4	Kelvin Gastelum	10 / 26	24 / 40	0 / 0
5	Kelvin Gastelum	13 / 43	27 / 58	1 / 1
5	Neil Magny	10 / 23	17 / 30	1 / 4

Neil Magny

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights37

Kelvin Gastelum

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights24